NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	2.3 [1211]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): +9.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	96		Comeback	1.0 [1046]		LVP	Cory Alexander (SAS): -5.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Elliott	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.00
Jason Sasser	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	0.00	0.05	11	69%	0.01	3	-0.03	7	57%	-0.02
Will Perdue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.05	4	100%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Greg Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.12	0.00	-0.08	11	18%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	7	31%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vinny Del Negro	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.05	18	55%	-0.03	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	4	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	-0.08	15	59%	0.13	3	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.01	-0.04	16	62%	0.11	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.00	-0.09	14	47%	0.06	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	3	60%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	15	45%	0.00	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.01
Doug West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.3	27.4	16.4	24.2	0.2	29.8	126.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +37.6%

SAS -3.3%

MIN +2.0%

MIN +12.5%

MIN +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.6	93.3	106.7	104.4
season	16.8	15.5		100.8	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		105.3	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	19.0	18.0	13.6	14.3	16.1
MIN	14.5	16.3	16.4	17.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Sasser	13	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-14	15	16.3	16.1	0.24	14.8	16.3	-1.53
Vinny Del Negro	55	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-17	21	15.7	16.8	-1.17	16.5	15.3	1.24
Monty Williams	56	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.34	5	-18	23	15.9	16.5	-0.66	16.5	15.3	1.24
Greg Anderson	22	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.10	-10	-3	-7	17.6	15.6	1.98	15.6	16.2	-0.58
Cory Alexander	44	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.06	-6	-7	1	16.9	15.3	1.55	15.9	16.3	-0.38
Avery Johnson	26	26	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-3	-7	15.4	16.4	-0.96	16.5	15.9	0.65
Carl Herrera	36	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.09	-12	-1	-11	16.7	15.7	1.09	15.1	16.7	-1.56
Vernon Maxwell	53	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.07	-14	1	-15	16.2	15.9	0.36	15.5	16.8	-1.31
Will Perdue	75	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-4	-5	16.0	16.9	-0.90	16.0	16.3	-0.31
Sean Elliott	65	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.02	-14	1	-15	15.6	17.5	-1.97	16.7	14.5	2.21

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephon Marbury	74	73	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.04	19	-6	25	16.3	15.0	1.31	16.4	14.9	1.49
Kevin Garnett	84	84	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-2	17	16.1	16.0	0.08	16.0	17.8	-1.80
Tom Gugliotta	65	63	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.06	13	0	13	16.0	16.2	-0.11	16.0	16.3	-0.24
Dean Garrett	48	47	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.14	18	-5	23	16.0	16.1	-0.08	16.1	16.1	0.01
Doug West	24	25	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.22	18	-5	23	15.2	16.4	-1.19	16.6	15.9	0.75
James Robinson	66	64	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.34	-5	18	-23	16.4	15.2	1.19	15.9	16.6	-0.75
Sam Mitchell	47	46	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.29	-6	19	-25	16.2	15.9	0.28	16.2	16.0	0.20
Cherokee Parks	26	27	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	14	-15	16.0	16.1	-0.16	16.4	16.0	0.44
Terry Porter	16	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.16	-6	19	-25	15.0	16.3	-1.31	14.9	16.4	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, SEA 125	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.8%
NJN 89, MIA 111	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
DET 110, HOU 118	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%