NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	8.2 [220]		MVP	Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): +22.4%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	3.5 [560]		LVP	Patrick Patterson (TOR): -14.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0.22	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22	0.10	0.14	0.01	8	85%	0.28	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.05,0.05	0.11	-0.05	0.01	19	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
John Salmons	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Landry Fields	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.09	0.01	8	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,-0.12	-0.00	-0.12	-0.00	13	55%	0.03	3	-0.14	5	60%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.12	-0.02	-0.11	-0.02	14	44%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Patrick Patterson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	13	39%	-0.02	4	-0.13	2	0%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.06	0.04	18	70%	0.22	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.11	0.00	13	47%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.06
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	12	59%	0.08	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	40%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	9	36%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.06
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	7	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.5	27.2	15.5	26.4	2.3	32.4	135.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -13.4%

MIA +43.7%

MIA +12.9%

MIA +5.8%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.7	15.1	109.0	113.3	105.2
season	15.9	15.6		107.2	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.1		105.1	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.3	15.4	19.2	15.4	16.5
MIA	14.4	14.6	15.1	18.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Landry Fields	6	7	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-7	9	15.7	16.6	-0.92	14.7	15.7	-1.02
Kyle Lowry	71	71	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-9	13	16.6	16.1	0.59	14.6	19.7	-5.11
Jonas Valanciunas	64	65	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.20	2	-7	9	17.2	14.9	2.24	15.4	16.3	-0.92
Terrence Ross	62	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-4	3	17.1	15.3	1.77	15.0	17.3	-2.38
Patrick Patterson	45	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-3	1	16.5	16.5	0.01	15.1	16.2	-1.07
John Salmons	39	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.19	-6	1	-7	15.8	17.1	-1.35	15.3	15.9	-0.57
Greivis Vasquez	18	19	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	4	-13	16.1	16.6	-0.59	19.7	14.6	5.11
DeMar DeRozan	71	71	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.38	-7	2	-9	16.5	16.4	0.10	16.3	13.2	3.17
Amir Johnson	69	68	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.35	-8	3	-11	15.9	18.5	-2.61	16.5	13.1	3.39

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	65	65	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.31	13	-8	21	16.1	14.5	1.57	16.3	17.0	-0.70
Chris Andersen	27	26	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.20	11	-6	17	17.2	15.0	2.24	18.2	15.9	2.30
Chris Bosh	61	61	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	-3	11	15.1	16.8	-1.73	17.1	15.2	1.86
Ray Allen	45	42	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.41	1	4	-3	17.6	13.7	3.98	16.7	16.3	0.40
Roger Mason Jr.	9	9	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-4	13	23.6	14.8	8.78	17.2	16.4	0.77
LeBron James	71	71	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	4	-3	14.7	19.1	-4.31	16.8	15.6	1.15
Mario Chalmers	30	30	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	3	-1	14.1	16.4	-2.33	16.5	16.6	-0.09
Norris Cole	58	58	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.25	-7	12	-19	14.7	17.3	-2.57	16.3	16.9	-0.53
Rashard Lewis	23	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	5	-5	15.4	15.7	-0.35	16.6	16.5	0.14
Udonis Haslem	21	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	9	-13	15.0	15.8	-0.79	14.2	17.2	-3.06
Michael Beasley	40	40	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.08	-9	14	-23	15.3	15.9	-0.64	15.6	17.3	-1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.42,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.54,0.84,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 81, MIN 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.54,0.68,0.85,1	92.6%
MIN 105, IND 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	91.9%
PHI 99, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.83,0.86,0.54,0.85,0.98,1	91.8%