NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	4.6 [900]		MVP	Jrue Holiday (NOP): +8.9%
New Orleans Pelicans	105		Comeback	1.0 [945]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -16.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Timofey Mozgov	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0.02	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	9	67%	0.05	2	-0.03	6	33%	-0.04
Wilson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	20	48%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Quincy Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.03	6	75%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	13	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.03	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.04	12	44%	0.02	8	-0.19	8	100%	0.03

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	13	65%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	4	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	17	50%	0.03	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.02	12	57%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04
Anthony Morrow	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	19	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	30.9	15.7	22.4	2.5	28.2	126.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +38.8%

DEN -5.7%

NOP +5.5%

NOP +9.2%

NOP +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	14.7	14.7	15.1	90.8	107.1	105.2
season	14.0	15.5		104.5	105.6
opponent	15.3	14.9		108.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.2	13.1	15.3	15.5	14.7
NOP	14.8	14.6	12.9	16.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Miller	25	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-13	10	15.0	14.6	0.34	15.1	14.5	0.64
Timofey Mozgov	59	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-13	10	14.7	14.7	0.06	13.8	15.9	-2.10
Randy Foye	15	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	-8	0	13.1	15.0	-1.93	19.1	14.0	5.07
JJ Hickson	72	73	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-12	8	14.8	14.3	0.54	15.1	13.6	1.45
Jordan Hamilton	65	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-11	6	15.1	13.8	1.29	13.9	16.5	-2.62
Andre Miller	30	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	-6	-4	13.4	15.3	-1.93	17.0	13.7	3.34
Ty Lawson	73	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.01	-9	-7	-2	15.2	13.2	1.97	14.2	16.0	-1.82
Wilson Chandler	74	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-5	-6	15.4	12.7	2.70	14.6	14.9	-0.31
Anthony Randolph	43	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-5	-6	13.3	15.8	-2.41	14.4	14.9	-0.56
Nate Robinson	34	32	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	0	-16	14.4	14.8	-0.40	14.4	14.8	-0.37

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyreke Evans	65	65	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.02	20	-4	24	14.9	14.2	0.67	14.5	15.1	-0.63
Brian Roberts	39	39	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	4	8	15.5	14.1	1.38	13.6	15.4	-1.77
Ryan Anderson	80	81	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	9	-2	14.3	16.2	-1.82	15.2	12.5	2.63
Alexis Ajinca	42	43	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	7	2	15.8	13.9	1.89	12.6	16.4	-3.82
Al-Farouq Aminu	62	63	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	9	-2	14.0	15.9	-1.91	15.7	13.0	2.65
Jrue Holiday	61	60	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.02	7	9	-2	13.8	16.1	-2.29	15.5	13.5	1.97
Darius Miller	38	38	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	9	-2	17.1	13.1	4.00	12.9	15.9	-3.00
Anthony Davis	56	55	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	9	-2	13.9	15.8	-1.89	16.4	12.6	3.82
Lou Amundson	10	10	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	10	-4	17.4	14.4	3.02	12.6	14.9	-2.34
Anthony Morrow	37	36	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	18	-20	13.5	15.4	-1.92	14.8	14.6	0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.72,0.82,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 96, PHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.95,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1	96.2%
MEM 91, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
DEN 93, PHX 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	95.8%