NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	11.8 [26]		MVP	Ryan Anderson (NOP): +44.5%
New Orleans Pelicans	111		Comeback	3.6 [405]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): -64.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Monroe	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.08	0.02	22	55%	0.18	3	-0.09	7	29%	-0.18
Josh Harrellson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	1	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Peyton Siva	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	9	56%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	44%	-0.00	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	0.02	-0.17	0.02	16	53%	-0.13	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Josh Smith	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,-0.04,0.09,0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24	-0.08	-0.16	-0.00	15	34%	-0.21	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Brandon Jennings	-0.64	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.1,0,0,-0.34,-0.34,-0.43,-0.43,-0.67,-0.64	-0.01	-0.60	0.03	23	52%	-0.33	4	-0.31	2	50%	-0.03

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.14,0,0,-0.06,0.1,0.39,0.44	0.44	0.07	0.37	-0.00	18	52%	0.44	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	14	61%	0.16	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.03
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	70%	0.12	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.05
Jeff Withey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.02	9	70%	0.08	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.06
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	7	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.31,-0.35	-0.35	0.02	-0.34	0.03	14	63%	-0.04	4	-0.31	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.8	1.7	27.5	15.3	25.0	2.8	31.4	2.3	19.6	150.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +101.0%

NOP +22.5%

DET -76.4%

NOP +8.6%

DET -5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NOP	NBA	DET	NOP	NBA
this game	16.2	15.0	15.1	103.9	108.8	105.2
season	15.0	15.5		104.7	105.6
opponent	15.3	15.0		108.5	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	17.2	14.2	17.2	16.1	16.7	16.2
NOP	14.1	15.2	16.3	17.4	9.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	62	63	0.23	-0.73	0.97	-0.03	9	-14	23	15.3	17.6	-2.27	15.6	13.9	1.67
Jonas Jerebko	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.03	1	-6	7	14.8	16.3	-1.45	16.5	14.9	1.61
Peyton Siva	14	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.05	-3	-2	-1	13.2	16.7	-3.46	14.2	15.1	-0.89
Josh Harrellson	24	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-5	5	13.3	17.1	-3.80	15.8	14.7	1.16
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	48	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.02	-8	3	-11	16.5	15.9	0.57	15.0	15.0	-0.00
Kyle Singler	60	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	2	-9	15.5	17.1	-1.61	14.3	15.9	-1.67
Greg Monroe	78	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.56	6	-11	17	16.8	14.2	2.54	15.3	13.7	1.60
Brandon Jennings	88	88	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-3	1	16.7	13.2	3.46	15.1	14.2	0.89
Josh Smith	62	62	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	3	-11	17.0	14.9	2.13	14.5	15.8	-1.31
Andre Drummond	68	65	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.24	-13	8	-21	17.1	14.4	2.63	14.6	15.7	-1.13

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al-Farouq Aminu	83	81	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.37	16	-11	27	14.6	16.5	-1.90	16.9	13.6	3.31
Jason Smith	74	75	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.26	18	-13	31	14.9	15.3	-0.42	17.7	12.1	5.61
Tyreke Evans	50	51	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.55	4	1	3	13.8	16.2	-2.39	15.0	17.4	-2.47
Jrue Holiday	76	77	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.48	6	-1	7	14.5	16.3	-1.83	17.1	13.6	3.49
Ryan Anderson	65	68	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	-1	7	14.9	15.2	-0.33	17.3	14.1	3.21
Jeff Withey	7	6	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.06	0	5	-5	15.6	14.9	0.63	11.0	16.5	-5.52
Anthony Morrow	22	21	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.11	2	3	-1	15.4	14.9	0.55	14.2	16.7	-2.47
Lou Amundson	29	28	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.02	-7	12	-19	16.1	14.5	1.57	13.6	17.2	-3.52
Eric Gordon	68	68	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.12	-4	9	-13	15.5	13.9	1.60	16.4	15.7	0.74
Austin Rivers	36	35	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	0.05	-16	21	-37	16.6	14.1	2.56	12.9	17.9	-5.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.77,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.68,0.54,0.84,0.42,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.55,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 103, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.59,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.67,0.84,1	90.5%
MIN 100, PHX 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.62,0.63,0.78,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.55,0.57,0.28,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.78,0.84,1	89.9%
DAL 121, IND 130	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.78,0.76,0.64,0.62,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.72,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.68,0.96,1	89.0%