NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	108		Excitement	8.8 [152]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +61.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	106		Comeback	1.3 [407]		LVP	Vince Carter (DAL): -25.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.50	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.34,0.49,0.47,0.5	0.18	0.32	0.00	23	64%	0.50	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Monta Ellis	0.43	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.06,0.43	0.01	0.42	0.01	17	56%	0.56	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Gal Mekel	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	4	87%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	4	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	68%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	10	68%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bernard James	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Wayne Ellington	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.15	-0.11	-0.00	13	31%	-0.11	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.61	0.61	0.22	0.41	0.02	18	71%	0.65	1	-0.04	9	100%	0.05
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.14,-0.16,-0.06,-0.12,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.04,0.04,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.09	0.00	17	58%	0.23	5	-0.15	4	50%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.02	9	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	16	50%	0.05	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	27%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	9	33%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	10	20%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	28.3	15.7	24.6	1.8	38.5	135.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +74.0%

POR -6.0%

POR -19.7%

DAL +3.6%

POR -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	15.5	14.4	15.1	112.5	109.3	105.2
season	15.3	15.1		109.0	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.0		106.5	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.7	16.2	16.2	14.8	15.5
POR	13.5	17.3	13.8	13.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	73	72	1.17	-0.67	1.84	0.70	16	-14	30	15.5	15.3	0.17	14.2	14.9	-0.74
DeJuan Blair	49	50	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.59	12	-10	22	14.0	17.0	-2.98	15.2	13.5	1.67
Monta Ellis	79	80	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	2	-2	14.9	18.4	-3.49	14.7	13.0	1.66
Gal Mekel	23	23	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	-3	8	17.4	14.9	2.57	14.4	14.4	0.03
Jose Calderon	65	67	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	3	-4	14.4	17.8	-3.39	14.5	14.1	0.39
Bernard James	20	22	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	-1	4	17.4	15.0	2.43	15.1	14.1	0.99
Vince Carter	49	51	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.27	-11	13	-24	16.4	14.5	1.86	13.3	15.6	-2.35
Jae Crowder	32	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.13	0	2	-2	17.2	14.6	2.66	14.1	14.5	-0.39
Samuel Dalembert	24	23	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	9	-16	17.7	14.7	3.03	12.6	14.9	-2.37
Shawn Marion	66	67	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.03	-7	9	-16	14.7	17.2	-2.45	14.8	13.3	1.50

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Robinson	17	17	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-2	2	15.1	14.2	0.83	18.7	14.8	3.92
Joel Freeland	25	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	0	-2	14.1	14.5	-0.39	19.0	14.4	4.69
Robin Lopez	69	70	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-1	0	14.9	13.0	1.88	14.3	18.6	-4.30
Dorell Wright	25	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	1	-4	13.7	14.6	-0.88	18.8	14.4	4.47
Nicolas Batum	76	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.34	0	-2	2	14.5	13.9	0.66	14.8	18.1	-3.37
Wesley Matthews	73	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-2	2	14.2	14.7	-0.50	14.4	18.7	-4.33
Damian Lillard	75	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.48	2	-4	6	14.5	13.8	0.72	15.0	17.3	-2.22
LaMarcus Aldridge	80	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	0	-2	14.2	15.1	-0.83	14.8	18.7	-3.92
Mo Williams	45	43	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	2	-6	13.8	14.9	-1.15	17.5	13.8	3.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.22,0.31,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 106, UTA 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.33,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.16,0	92.5%
MIN 121, SAC 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.11,0.13,0.17,0,0	92.0%
ATL 76, CLE 65	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.29,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.01,0.01,0	91.7%