NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	95		Excitement	5.2 [788]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +9.6%
Atlanta Hawks	102		Comeback	1.6 [770]		LVP	Rudy Gay (TOR): -28.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.13	0.00	0.05	23	65%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.02	9	72%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.01	7	80%	0.08	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.05
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.02	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Buycks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.19	-0.08	0.01	23	28%	-0.24	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	14	61%	0.14	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.03
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	12	52%	0.05	2	-0.03	5	20%	-0.07
Kyle Korver	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	12	71%	0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	42%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Pero Antic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	0.03	13	49%	-0.03	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.7	29.2	15.7	28.1	1.5	33.2	133.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +34.8%

ATL +6.5%

ATL +2.1%

ATL +3.2%

ATL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	16.2	14.0	15.1	100.0	106.2	105.2
season	15.9	14.8		107.2	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.1		104.7	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.8	14.6	17.7	17.9	16.2
ATL	13.4	14.2	13.0	15.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	24	25	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.24	14	-21	35	17.4	15.7	1.68	15.2	13.6	1.61
D.J. Augustin	23	23	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.13	8	-15	23	16.2	16.1	0.08	15.6	13.5	2.10
Dwight Buycks	9	9	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.10	4	-11	15	20.9	15.7	5.23	19.2	13.5	5.75
Landry Fields	43	44	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.37	12	-19	31	17.3	15.2	2.01	14.2	13.8	0.40
Julyan Stone	7	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-5	3	18.3	16.0	2.30	14.4	14.0	0.45
Tyler Hansbrough	41	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.06	-3	-4	1	16.7	15.8	0.92	13.9	14.1	-0.15
Amir Johnson	66	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.23	2	-9	11	15.7	17.1	-1.41	13.6	15.0	-1.38
Jonas Valanciunas	35	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	3	-13	15.4	16.6	-1.15	14.8	13.5	1.30
Austin Daye	18	17	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	7	-21	15.4	16.3	-0.95	13.1	14.2	-1.08
DeMar DeRozan	73	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	3	-13	16.1	16.4	-0.27	13.5	15.9	-2.40
Rudy Gay	66	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.09	-17	10	-27	15.4	18.0	-2.60	13.7	14.8	-1.15
Kyle Lowry	70	70	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.09	-19	12	-31	15.7	17.5	-1.79	13.4	15.8	-2.41

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	73	75	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.10	20	-13	33	13.5	15.5	-1.99	16.3	15.6	0.64
Al Horford	70	69	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.14	16	-9	25	14.1	13.7	0.49	16.0	16.5	-0.42
DeMarre Carroll	69	69	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-5	17	13.7	14.9	-1.22	15.6	17.7	-2.17
Pero Antic	24	25	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	-1	9	12.6	14.5	-1.85	14.8	16.7	-1.90
Kyle Korver	69	67	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	7	-7	14.2	13.5	0.68	16.6	15.2	1.39
Cartier Martin	46	45	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	7	-7	13.8	14.2	-0.35	16.5	15.9	0.59
Paul Millsap	62	60	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	10	-13	14.7	12.8	1.88	16.2	16.0	0.25
Mike Scott	21	21	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	11	-15	13.8	14.1	-0.26	18.8	15.4	3.40
Elton Brand	15	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	10	-13	13.1	14.2	-1.04	14.9	16.4	-1.45
Dennis Schroder	31	29	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	18	-29	15.7	13.2	2.56	15.8	16.3	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.78,0.79,0.72,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.86,0.97,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 103, DET 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	94.5%
HOU 101, POR 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.73,0.84,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.3%
ORL 82, MEM 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.38,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.77,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.71,0.81,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.0%