NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	109		Excitement	6.9 [429]		MVP	Ekpe Udoh (MIL): +19.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	2.6 [631]		LVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): -19.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.07	0.03	19	62%	0.26	2	-0.08	10	90%	0.06
Serge Ibaka	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.07	0.01	8	84%	0.19	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	6	83%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	12	59%	0.10	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	18	46%	0.01	5	-0.13	14	71%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.08	-0.00	6	78%	0.19	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.04	0.03	22	64%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	9	60%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	13	31%	-0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	12	42%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	12	43%	0.01	3	-0.16	4	75%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.16	-0.04	-0.00	17	25%	-0.16	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	25.3	17.4	27.3	2.5	31.2	130.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +39.4%

OKC +18.5%

MIL -3.9%

MIL -9.7%

OKC +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIL	NBA	OKC	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.1	15.4	117.2	106.5	104.1
season	14.8	14.7		109.3	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.5		103.9	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.4	13.2	15.8	16.3	14.9
MIL	16.2	16.3	14.2	18.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	74	72	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.19	19	-9	28	15.1	14.2	0.91	16.2	15.6	0.66
Derek Fisher	41	42	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.21	12	-2	14	15.2	14.6	0.56	16.9	15.4	1.45
Kevin Martin	59	59	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	4	2	15.1	14.4	0.69	16.1	16.1	-0.10
Russell Westbrook	73	72	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.15	7	3	4	14.9	14.8	0.04	16.1	15.9	0.23
Serge Ibaka	61	59	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	1	8	15.0	14.6	0.44	15.7	16.8	-1.07
Kendrick Perkins	37	37	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	6	-2	14.4	15.2	-0.75	15.6	16.4	-0.82
Reggie Jackson	28	29	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	11	-12	15.0	14.8	0.17	15.2	16.5	-1.28
Thabo Sefolosha	34	34	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.10	4	6	-2	14.4	15.1	-0.69	16.1	16.1	0.10
Nick Collison	46	48	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.18	-7	17	-24	14.6	15.1	-0.54	16.2	15.9	0.34
Ronnie Brewer	12	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	13	-16	14.0	15.0	-1.01	16.9	15.9	0.97

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	66	66	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.07	4	-14	18	16.0	16.3	-0.35	15.0	14.5	0.51
Mike Dunleavy	12	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-9	8	16.2	16.1	0.19	15.2	14.8	0.42
Ekpe Udoh	37	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-9	8	15.6	16.4	-0.86	14.5	15.1	-0.56
Monta Ellis	76	75	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-8	6	15.9	16.8	-0.90	15.4	12.9	2.47
JJ Redick	44	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-6	2	16.3	15.9	0.35	14.9	14.9	0.06
Larry Sanders	56	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	-1	-8	16.4	15.6	0.86	15.1	14.5	0.56
Luc Mbah a Moute	39	37	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	2	-14	15.2	16.7	-1.56	14.2	15.3	-1.15
Marquis Daniels	63	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-6	2	16.4	15.4	1.06	14.8	15.0	-0.22
Brandon Jennings	72	74	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.18	-21	11	-32	16.4	15.0	1.40	14.6	16.0	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.36,0.15,0.09,0.2,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 116, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.63,0.75,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.41,0.24,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0,0	92.0%
DAL 93, MIA 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.28,0.19,0.07,0.04,0,0	91.9%
CLE 102, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.15,0.07,0.02,0,0	91.8%