NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	102		Excitement	6.2 [581]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +8.7%
Sacramento Kings	97		Comeback	1.5 [427]		LVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): -8.7%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.03	0.10	-0.01	23	52%	0.24	5	-0.15	12	75%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.09	0.03	0.04	15	60%	0.12	1	-0.04	10	80%	-0.02
Alan Henderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.02	5	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Drew Gooden	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	7	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.06
Luke Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.00	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	10	58%	0.08	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	11	70%	0.19	3	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.13	-0.01	0.08	14	74%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	13	48%	0.02	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	12	46%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	31%	-0.03	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	16	43%	0.01	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.3	31.5	15.7	26.2	2.4	33.6	139.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +23.8%

CLE +0.4%

CLE +12.0%

CLE +14.7%

SAC -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	SAC	NBA	CLE	SAC	NBA
this game	16.6	14.9	15.6	110.9	106.6	104.4
season	16.2	15.3		105.6	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.3	17.8	16.0	16.3	16.6
SAC	15.0	14.9	16.0	13.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Snow	64	63	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-5	15	17.1	15.4	1.75	15.5	13.6	1.90
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	51	48	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.23	10	-5	15	16.9	16.2	0.73	15.7	14.0	1.78
LeBron James	86	85	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	2	1	16.4	18.8	-2.41	14.5	20.2	-5.65
Drew Gooden	69	68	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	5	-5	16.4	17.0	-0.51	14.7	15.4	-0.73
Larry Hughes	75	75	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.30	-4	9	-13	16.8	15.6	1.21	14.8	15.1	-0.28
Damon Jones	46	46	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	1	3	16.0	17.2	-1.15	14.8	15.0	-0.17
Alan Henderson	24	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	2	1	18.3	16.0	2.38	14.6	15.0	-0.46
Luke Jackson	5	4	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	3	-1	14.4	16.7	-2.30	15.5	14.9	0.64
Donyell Marshall	38	38	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	4	-3	16.0	17.0	-0.98	15.1	14.7	0.37
Mike Wilks	2	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.11	-4	9	-13	2.5	16.9	-14.39	5.7	15.2	-9.54

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Hart	11	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-3	1	18.5	14.4	4.16	18.3	16.3	2.02
Francisco Garcia	31	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-4	3	15.7	14.5	1.19	14.4	17.8	-3.45
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	71	73	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-8	11	14.3	16.8	-2.51	16.8	15.8	0.99
Bonzi Wells	79	80	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-4	3	14.5	17.2	-2.62	16.7	16.0	0.66
Kenny Thomas	33	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	3	-11	17.0	13.7	3.26	15.8	17.1	-1.30
Brad Miller	78	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	0	-5	14.5	17.2	-2.64	16.7	15.7	1.00
Mike Bibby	80	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	14.4	18.5	-4.16	16.3	18.3	-2.02
Peja Stojakovic	72	71	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	3	-11	14.9	14.7	0.19	17.5	13.4	4.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.15,0.07,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 91, UTA 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.23,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	93.7%
PHX 127, MEM 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.48,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.36,0.46,0.3,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.36,0.2,0.33,0.15,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.4%
NYK 104, CHH 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.08,0	93.1%