NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	104		Excitement	6.6 [483]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +26.9%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	5.8 [64]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -8.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.19	0.08	0.00	17	76%	0.29	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Damian Lillard	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.11	0.01	16	65%	0.24	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.07	0.00	10	60%	0.14	0	0.00	5	60%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.05	0.07	-0.02	5	50%	0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	6	33%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	10	40%	0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	20	43%	-0.02	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.06	0.04	-0.07	18	41%	0.09	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Jenkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.09	-0.05	0.04	11	81%	0.20	4	-0.19	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	21	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	26.5	15.6	22.9	2.0	32.3	127.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +39.8%

ATL -1.5%

ATL -0.3%

POR +14.2%

ATL -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	ATL	NBA	POR	ATL	NBA
this game	16.2	14.3	15.4	109.5	98.9	104.1
season	15.8	15.1		104.3	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.3		102.8	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.5	17.8	17.2	15.3	16.2
ATL	13.2	14.9	13.3	16.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	78	78	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.17	14	-3	17	15.6	19.0	-3.44	14.3	14.1	0.20
Damian Lillard	76	75	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.12	13	-2	15	16.2	16.1	0.09	14.2	14.7	-0.56
LaMarcus Aldridge	80	78	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-1	13	15.9	17.5	-1.53	13.8	16.6	-2.74
Meyers Leonard	56	56	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	2	7	16.5	15.7	0.74	14.8	13.5	1.28
Wesley Matthews	79	78	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	3	5	16.3	15.6	0.67	14.2	14.9	-0.78
JJ Hickson	54	54	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	10	-9	16.2	16.1	0.10	14.4	14.1	0.33
Eric Maynor	44	43	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.17	-1	12	-13	16.8	15.7	1.11	14.6	14.0	0.59
Will Barton	8	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	12	-13	17.6	16.0	1.58	14.6	14.3	0.37

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Jenkins	35	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-9	7	14.1	14.4	-0.32	16.7	15.8	0.93
Ivan Johnson	28	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-8	5	15.1	13.9	1.17	16.9	15.9	1.02
Devin Harris	27	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-8	5	15.7	13.7	1.94	16.9	15.9	1.02
Dahntay Jones	31	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.15	-2	-9	7	14.9	14.0	0.97	17.0	15.8	1.15
Kyle Korver	63	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-2	-7	14.0	14.9	-0.97	15.7	17.1	-1.36
Josh Smith	76	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-5	-1	13.8	16.3	-2.53	15.7	18.6	-2.87
DeShawn Stevenson	57	57	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-4	-3	14.1	14.6	-0.46	16.1	16.3	-0.18
Jeff Teague	69	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-1	-9	14.0	15.1	-1.08	15.7	17.4	-1.71
Al Horford	84	85	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.14	-13	2	-15	14.5	12.9	1.55	16.4	14.3	2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.85,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.29,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 98, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.34,0.15,0.16,0.03,0.01,0	91.6%
CLE 121, BKN 114	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.71,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.18,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.02,0	91.5%
WAS 90, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.16,0.08,0	91.5%