NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	6.5 [492]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +23.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Comeback	2.8 [106]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -17.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.20	0.04	0.00	13	76%	0.24	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Wilson Chandler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	8	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Corey Brewer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	6	50%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	7	72%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Andre Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	11	65%	0.09	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	14	36%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	17	34%	-0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.00	0.00	7	78%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.02	-0.02	21	51%	0.08	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
DeAndre Liggins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	9	40%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.09	0.04	23	55%	0.04	6	-0.18	16	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	32.0	15.5	24.8	2.0	39.4	141.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +17.4%

DEN +0.2%

DEN +28.4%

DEN +1.3%

DEN +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	14.3	13.5	15.4	110.7	100.0	104.1
season	14.4	14.8		108.4	109.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		100.6	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.9	11.5	14.9	17.4	14.3
OKC	14.9	12.9	14.5	11.8	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	75	76	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.12	17	-7	24	14.5	14.0	0.49	14.0	12.2	1.77
Ty Lawson	77	77	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	-2	14	14.6	13.6	0.94	13.9	12.4	1.49
Danilo Gallinari	72	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	-3	16	13.6	16.0	-2.40	14.0	12.4	1.59
Kenneth Faried	72	70	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	5	0	15.1	12.5	2.53	13.4	13.8	-0.42
Kosta Koufos	36	35	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.06	7	3	4	13.2	14.9	-1.69	15.0	12.8	2.25
Andre Miller	51	52	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	6	-2	14.2	14.5	-0.29	12.7	14.3	-1.56
Wilson Chandler	49	51	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.12	2	8	-6	13.9	14.7	-0.81	13.2	13.8	-0.62
JaVale McGee	33	35	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	10	-10	15.0	14.0	0.96	13.1	13.7	-0.64
Corey Brewer	50	52	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.26	-10	20	-30	14.6	14.0	0.58	12.1	14.9	-2.79

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Martin	50	49	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.10	7	-17	24	12.5	14.4	-1.87	15.2	13.6	1.61
DeAndre Liggins	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	9.5	13.6	-4.09	8.0	14.4	-6.45
Jeremy Lamb	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	9.5	13.6	-4.09	8.0	14.4	-6.45
Perry Jones	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	9.5	13.6	-4.09	8.0	14.4	-6.45
Ronnie Brewer	12	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.10	-7	-3	-4	15.7	13.2	2.53	10.0	14.8	-4.84
Nick Collison	54	54	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-12	14	13.3	13.7	-0.44	15.5	13.0	2.48
Reggie Jackson	39	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-7	4	12.8	14.0	-1.18	15.4	13.7	1.75
Derek Fisher	25	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-3	-4	14.6	13.2	1.44	12.3	14.9	-2.65
Kendrick Perkins	51	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-5	0	14.1	12.9	1.23	13.4	15.2	-1.71
Kevin Durant	92	92	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-7	4	13.2	15.7	-2.53	14.8	10.0	4.84
Russell Westbrook	79	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-2	-6	13.3	14.1	-0.80	14.7	13.2	1.45
Serge Ibaka	52	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	1	-12	14.0	13.0	1.02	13.7	15.0	-1.35
Thabo Sefolosha	60	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	5	-20	14.2	12.5	1.67	14.2	14.5	-0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.05,0.14,0.13,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 110, NJN 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.38,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.01,0	93.5%
IND 113, ATL 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.77,0.7,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.14,0.07,0.15,0.01,0	93.4%
MIA 114, WAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.3%