NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	114		Excitement	5.5 [720]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +16.0%
Washington Wizards	111		Comeback	2.0 [294]		LVP	Kelly Oubre (WAS): -8.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	8	71%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
James Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.00	0.01	8	89%	0.16	2	-0.05	3	33%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.01	-0.07	14	61%	0.18	4	-0.08	8	75%	0.03
Hassan Whiteside	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	14	58%	0.08	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
Derrick Williams	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	16	47%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	46%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.02	-0.01	9	25%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.00	0.05	23	63%	0.16	3	-0.08	8	62%	0.02
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	62%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.02	0.06	26	59%	0.11	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	43%	0.00	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kelly Oubre	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	32.2	15.4	26.4	2.4	40.0	142.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +42.0%

WAS -4.4%

MIA +23.3%

WAS -10.1%

WAS -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	16.5	13.8	14.8	118.8	118.1	107.7
season	15.4	14.4		106.7	109.9
opponent	14.9	14.5		108.7	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	17.7	19.0	13.9	16.5
WAS	13.6	14.2	15.1	12.8	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	78	77	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.35	7	-4	11	16.9	14.6	2.30	13.7	14.2	-0.45
Josh Richardson	68	66	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.40	2	1	1	17.3	14.4	2.89	13.7	14.0	-0.27
Goran Dragic	75	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	2	-1	16.1	17.7	-1.58	13.5	14.7	-1.20
Derrick Williams	32	31	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-8	19	18.3	15.6	2.70	14.4	13.5	0.91
Dion Waiters	59	58	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.42	-2	5	-7	16.4	16.6	-0.14	13.2	14.7	-1.53
Tyler Johnson	48	50	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.01	6	-3	9	15.8	17.2	-1.42	14.3	13.2	1.05
Luke Babbitt	19	18	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	-2	7	13.6	17.2	-3.62	12.6	14.1	-1.48
Rodney McGruder	36	36	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	3	-3	17.3	16.0	1.28	14.2	13.5	0.72
James Johnson	55	53	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.36	-12	15	-27	15.7	17.5	-1.72	14.1	13.4	0.66
Willie Reed	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	6	-9	14.6	16.7	-2.10	15.2	13.7	1.56

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Oubre	27	28	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.06	7	-10	17	15.1	13.3	1.78	17.0	16.3	0.68
Andrew Nicholson	11	11	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.03	5	-8	13	14.9	13.7	1.25	20.9	15.9	5.00
Tomas Satoransky	49	53	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.45	12	-15	27	12.8	14.9	-2.07	16.2	16.8	-0.61
Markieff Morris	19	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.07	-7	4	-11	14.5	13.6	0.83	16.1	16.6	-0.45
Marcus Thornton	45	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	1	-5	14.8	12.9	1.99	16.2	16.7	-0.53
Jason Smith	18	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	1	-5	14.7	13.6	1.13	17.9	16.1	1.86
John Wall	74	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	1	-5	13.8	13.7	0.07	16.0	18.2	-2.21
Bradley Beal	77	79	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.39	-4	1	-5	13.5	15.0	-1.45	17.1	13.8	3.30
Otto Porter	75	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.39	-5	2	-7	13.2	16.4	-3.21	16.0	18.7	-2.69
Marcin Gortat	75	76	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.31	-11	8	-19	13.7	14.1	-0.37	16.1	17.8	-1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, NYK 78	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
UTA 96, PHX 82	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
NJN 111, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%