NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	107		Excitement	9.4 [95]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +30.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	111		Comeback	2.8 [718]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -31.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Hickson	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.05	0.03	15	73%	0.18	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	10	68%	0.20	2	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Meyers Leonard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.01	7	33%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0.01	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01	0.12	-0.10	0.01	14	71%	0.18	2	-0.17	3	67%	-0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Claver	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	1	75%	0.04	1	-0.07	2	0%	-0.06
Nolan Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.05,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	22	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.32	-0.15	-0.16	0.00	19	36%	-0.19	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.21	0.13	0.02	23	73%	0.52	5	-0.21	9	100%	0.10
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.09	-0.00	9	58%	0.23	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	77%	0.13	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	12	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	14	47%	0.01	2	-0.08	12	42%	-0.09
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.33,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.18	-0.03	-0.00	11	17%	-0.15	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	0.8	32.3	15.5	26.5	2.5	44.5	146.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +8.0%

LAL +26.8%

LAL +3.1%

LAL +4.0%

LAL +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	LAL	NBA	POR	LAL	NBA
this game	14.9	12.8	15.4	102.9	106.7	104.1
season	15.8	14.9		104.3	106.0
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.7	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.1	16.4	14.4	14.9	14.9
LAL	12.0	13.0	12.2	13.9	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nolan Smith	18	16	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.06	0	-4	4	13.8	15.1	-1.31	14.0	12.6	1.44
Will Barton	42	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	0	-4	15.5	14.5	1.02	12.7	12.8	-0.05
Sasha Pavlovic	8	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-2	0	13.0	15.1	-2.07	10.1	13.0	-2.88
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	76	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.36	10	-14	24	14.2	16.9	-2.71	13.2	11.5	1.75
Meyers Leonard	28	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-3	2	15.5	14.7	0.85	12.4	12.9	-0.50
Victor Claver	30	30	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	6	-16	16.0	14.5	1.57	10.9	13.6	-2.69
JJ Hickson	74	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-1	-2	15.0	14.8	0.21	13.2	11.7	1.51
Wesley Matthews	74	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.41	-1	-3	2	15.0	14.7	0.25	13.4	11.1	2.20
Nicolas Batum	84	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.48	-1	-3	2	14.7	15.7	-0.97	12.5	13.8	-1.29
Damian Lillard	86	88	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.40	-8	4	-12	15.1	13.8	1.31	12.6	14.0	-1.44

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jodie Meeks	48	49	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.27	9	-5	14	12.6	12.9	-0.32	14.2	15.6	-1.42
Steve Nash	74	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	1	2	12.8	12.6	0.20	14.8	15.2	-0.49
Kobe Bryant	79	79	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.40	2	2	0	12.7	13.0	-0.29	14.5	16.2	-1.64
Metta World Peace	77	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	0	4	13.1	11.7	1.40	15.1	14.4	0.66
Dwight Howard	82	81	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.41	1	3	-2	12.8	12.7	0.07	15.1	14.4	0.67
Antawn Jamison	45	45	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	-3	10	12.4	13.1	-0.67	15.4	14.6	0.78
Steve Blake	50	52	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.01	3	1	2	12.7	12.8	-0.11	15.7	14.2	1.52
Earl Clark	65	66	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.15	-9	13	-22	12.8	12.8	0.02	14.8	15.1	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.59,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.71,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 91, MIL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.57,0.85,1	92.2%
MIA 74, NYK 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.68,0.69,1	92.0%
TOR 74, DET 82	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.78,0.92,1	91.6%