NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	74		Excitement	7.6 [300]		MVP	Clifford Robinson (DET): +12.2%
Detroit Pistons	82		Comeback	2.2 [831]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -22.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jelani McCoy	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	64%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Greg Foster	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	10	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Chris Jefferies	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	12	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	19	50%	-0.01	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.02
Alvin Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	12	50%	0.07	5	-0.21	4	100%	0.04
Lindsey Hunter	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.12	-0.02	11	32%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	17	60%	0.12	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	12	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	8	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	4	25%	-0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.12	-0.10	0.01	11	48%	-0.02	4	-0.20	11	73%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.4	26.5	16.7	24.1	1.8	34.3	127.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +38.7%

TOR -0.6%

TOR -4.5%

DET +17.6%

TOR -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	19.6	16.0	15.5	92.5	100.0	101.6
season	16.2	16.8		98.8	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.3		97.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.0	21.6	21.8	19.3	19.6
DET	17.5	14.3	16.1	15.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	53	53	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-9	10	19.8	19.3	0.53	16.0	16.0	0.03
Greg Foster	7	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-6	4	22.9	19.3	3.56	15.8	16.0	-0.17
Chris Jefferies	60	62	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-7	6	19.3	20.4	-1.05	16.7	13.7	2.96
Jerome Williams	69	70	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-8	8	19.1	22.9	-3.82	15.7	17.6	-1.87
Alvin Williams	64	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.26	-6	-2	-4	19.8	19.0	0.77	15.6	17.9	-2.25
Lindsey Hunter	48	48	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	2	-12	19.7	19.5	0.14	16.3	15.6	0.73
Antonio Davis	58	61	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.36	-8	0	-8	19.5	19.9	-0.35	16.1	15.7	0.43
Jelani McCoy	41	42	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.24	-14	6	-20	19.9	19.3	0.64	15.5	16.5	-1.00

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	51	50	0.59	-0.10	0.69	0.24	12	-4	16	15.8	16.3	-0.43	18.9	20.8	-1.90
Corliss Williamson	46	44	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-3	14	15.7	16.3	-0.57	18.9	20.5	-1.66
Clifford Robinson	58	55	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	2	4	15.8	16.3	-0.49	20.3	18.0	2.29
Ben Wallace	79	78	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	-1	10	16.1	13.3	2.76	19.3	33.5	-14.24
Richard Hamilton	51	51	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	2	4	15.4	17.0	-1.63	20.2	18.6	1.56
Michael Curry	34	34	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	7	-6	16.3	15.8	0.47	19.7	19.6	0.11
Mehmet Okur	27	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	7	-6	16.0	16.0	0.02	19.2	19.8	-0.65
Jon Barry	33	31	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	10	-12	17.0	15.3	1.69	19.7	19.6	0.11
Chucky Atkins	31	30	-0.10	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	12	-16	16.3	15.8	0.43	20.8	18.9	1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.78,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 74, NYK 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.68,0.69,1	92.2%
LAC 92, LAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.64,0.46,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.27,0.39,0.37,0.86,0.92,1	91.8%
POR 107, LAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.59,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.71,0.57,0.73,1	91.6%