NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	88		Excitement	5.7 [650]		MVP	Gary Neal (SAS): +14.0%
San Antonio Spurs	103		Comeback	1.4 [1180]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -20.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	13	64%	0.10	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Courtney Lee	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	10	52%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	13	46%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Sullinger	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.07	-0.00	13	62%	0.06	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Jeff Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.02	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.15	-0.06	-0.00	7	43%	-0.03	7	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	13	69%	0.18	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	14	65%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Nando De Colo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	6	62%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	10	55%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	10	62%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	2	75%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.02	13	18%	-0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.7	27.0	15.4	27.4	1.5	26.6	124.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.7%

SAS +4.0%

SAS +4.1%

SAS +10.7%

BOS -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAS	NBA	BOS	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	16.2	15.4	98.9	113.2	104.1
season	14.9	15.2		101.2	106.4
opponent	15.1	16.2		99.5	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.1	16.0	14.1	17.1	15.8
SAS	15.2	14.7	16.5	18.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Sullinger	20	22	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-16	17	14.5	16.1	-1.59	16.7	16.1	0.62
Jason Terry	56	58	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-16	17	16.6	14.5	2.07	16.5	15.8	0.71
Jeff Green	58	60	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-14	13	15.8	15.8	-0.03	16.7	15.2	1.59
Kevin Garnett	56	58	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-15	15	15.9	15.6	0.33	16.4	15.8	0.66
Leandro Barbosa	16	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-10	5	15.4	15.9	-0.43	18.2	15.8	2.48
Chris Wilcox	25	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.08	-9	-6	-3	15.4	15.9	-0.54	16.1	16.3	-0.18
Paul Pierce	57	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.01	-12	-3	-9	15.5	16.3	-0.87	15.6	17.4	-1.80
Courtney Lee	56	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.05	-12	-3	-9	16.1	15.3	0.77	16.6	15.7	0.90
Rajon Rondo	64	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.05	-17	2	-19	15.6	16.3	-0.74	15.7	17.5	-1.81
Brandon Bass	37	35	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.01	-21	6	-27	15.9	15.7	0.27	14.7	17.1	-2.38

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	70	67	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.07	17	-2	19	16.3	15.8	0.58	15.8	15.6	0.20
Tim Duncan	59	57	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.03	18	-3	21	16.5	15.7	0.71	16.3	14.8	1.52
Gary Neal	61	60	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	4	7	15.7	17.2	-1.53	15.9	15.4	0.50
Danny Green	66	63	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	5	5	16.5	15.4	1.06	15.8	15.7	0.08
Tiago Splitter	54	55	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	9	-3	15.7	16.9	-1.15	15.1	16.9	-1.77
Boris Diaw	41	38	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.06	2	13	-11	17.5	15.2	2.28	15.8	15.8	-0.04
Nando De Colo	36	35	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	13	-11	17.2	15.5	1.72	15.8	15.8	0.07
Matt Bonner	28	28	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	11	-7	14.7	16.9	-2.11	16.0	15.7	0.36
James Anderson	10	11	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.07	5	10	-5	14.3	16.4	-2.14	15.5	15.8	-0.28
Manu Ginobili	9	9	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	13	-11	15.4	16.3	-0.85	14.7	15.9	-1.25
Patty Mills	21	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	17	-19	15.8	16.3	-0.58	15.6	15.8	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.88,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 84, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,0.99,1,1	94.9%
WAS 83, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1,1	94.4%
SEA 102, PHX 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1	94.2%