NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	5.3 [744]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +17.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	83		Comeback	2.9 [167]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -16.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.08	-0.02	17	65%	0.24	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Louis Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	16	54%	0.10	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Al Horford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	16	53%	0.10	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.03	13	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	3	12%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Ivan Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.00	11	64%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	12	64%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	4	100%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	3	40%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	0%	-0.04
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.04	0.02	10	52%	-0.00	6	-0.14	3	67%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.03	0.01	25	33%	-0.12	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	31.3	15.4	25.3	2.6	39.6	138.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +29.6%

ATL +4.8%

ATL +7.7%

ATL +8.2%

MEM -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MEM	NBA	ATL	MEM	NBA
this game	15.6	15.8	15.4	100.0	92.2	104.1
season	15.1	16.5		102.6	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.1	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.0	15.8	14.8	15.9	15.6
MEM	16.7	16.2	18.0	12.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	78	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.11	18	-8	26	15.0	18.9	-3.84	16.0	15.0	0.99
Jeff Teague	74	71	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.13	16	-6	22	15.1	17.7	-2.56	16.1	14.8	1.26
Zaza Pachulia	67	65	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.29	9	1	8	15.8	15.2	0.58	16.5	14.2	2.26
Louis Williams	63	61	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	1	8	15.3	16.4	-1.11	14.9	17.9	-3.04
Al Horford	72	71	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.21	4	6	-2	15.8	15.2	0.53	16.0	15.2	0.86
Anthony Morrow	35	35	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.07	-2	12	-14	17.4	14.6	2.77	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Anthony Tolliver	7	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	9	-8	16.1	15.6	0.54	14.8	15.9	-1.07
Ivan Johnson	21	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	10	-10	16.5	15.4	1.13	15.1	16.0	-0.92
Devin Harris	48	46	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	15	-20	15.8	15.5	0.35	16.0	15.7	0.25

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	29	28	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.13	7	-17	24	13.3	17.0	-3.77	16.6	15.2	1.38
Tony Allen	43	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-10	10	16.3	15.4	0.90	16.3	15.0	1.25
Darrell Arthur	24	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-12	14	13.7	16.6	-2.95	17.0	15.1	1.83
Quincy Pondexter	36	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-8	6	15.6	16.0	-0.32	15.8	15.6	0.19
Zach Randolph	71	71	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.17	0	-10	10	15.9	15.5	0.46	16.9	11.6	5.25
Marreese Speights	10	10	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	0	-10	21.0	15.2	5.81	12.2	16.1	-3.86
Rudy Gay	69	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	-1	-8	15.7	16.3	-0.59	15.0	17.9	-2.87
Marc Gasol	69	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.07	-12	2	-14	16.1	15.0	1.02	14.9	18.3	-3.47
Jerryd Bayless	34	35	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	1	-12	15.6	16.0	-0.39	16.2	15.3	0.89
Mike Conley	65	68	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	5	-20	16.7	13.6	3.09	14.7	18.3	-3.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.56,0.41,0.27,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.16,0.17,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 109, ORL 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.27,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
NYK 88, MIA 79	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.41,0.23,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.24,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.02,0,0	93.0%
ORL 105, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.58,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.2,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.0%