NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	88		Excitement	5.9 [590]		MVP	Allan Houston (NYK): +8.7%
Miami Heat	79		Comeback	2.9 [274]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -21.8%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allan Houston	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.06	0.02	19	60%	0.16	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Charlie Ward	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Buck Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	0.00	0.04	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.00	0.07	7	58%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Larry Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	8	64%	0.01	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
John Starks	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	8	22%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Ewing	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	0.00	0.05	23	44%	-0.04	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.05
Chris Childs	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	0.06	5	33%	-0.09	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	14	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	17	50%	-0.05	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.03	-0.06	6	14%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	7	37%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.09	0.01	16	44%	-0.15	2	-0.07	13	46%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.4	27.6	16.6	34.4	1.7	36.4	146.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +16.0%

NYK +26.7%

NYK +6.9%

MIA -3.3%

NYK +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	17.2	14.6	15.6	97.8	86.8	104.4
season	15.1	15.8		102.0	103.1
opponent	16.3	16.1		98.3	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.8	17.2	16.0	18.9	17.2
MIA	14.5	16.3	13.4	14.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Ewing	75	75	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.13	20	-11	31	16.4	21.2	-4.79	15.0	12.9	2.13
Allan Houston	79	79	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-5	19	16.7	21.2	-4.52	14.9	13.0	1.87
Charlie Ward	35	33	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.07	19	-10	29	16.3	17.8	-1.51	15.7	14.0	1.68
Charles Oakley	78	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-3	15	17.0	18.7	-1.68	14.9	12.7	2.16
Larry Johnson	73	73	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	0	9	16.9	18.4	-1.41	14.4	15.7	-1.30
John Starks	28	30	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	14	-19	19.5	16.2	3.27	14.6	14.6	-0.04
Chris Childs	55	58	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.17	-10	19	-29	17.8	16.3	1.51	14.0	15.7	-1.68
Buck Williams	27	27	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.14	-14	23	-37	20.1	16.0	4.09	12.8	15.4	-2.58

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	53	54	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.12	7	-16	23	14.4	15.0	-0.60	18.7	14.9	3.82
John Crotty	13	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	-1	-7	15.3	14.5	0.79	16.2	17.4	-1.21
Voshon Lenard	51	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-9	9	14.5	14.8	-0.35	17.3	17.1	0.17
Keith Askins	28	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.04	-9	0	-9	15.0	14.4	0.59	17.0	17.3	-0.37
P.J. Brown	64	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	1	-11	14.5	14.8	-0.27	18.2	14.8	3.43
Dan Majerle	56	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-6	3	15.1	13.8	1.34	17.1	17.5	-0.40
Tim Hardaway	69	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-4	-1	14.0	16.7	-2.71	17.2	17.2	0.07
Jamal Mashburn	81	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-6	3	14.6	14.9	-0.31	16.5	22.2	-5.66
Ike Austin	40	37	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.13	-14	5	-19	15.2	14.1	1.11	15.4	18.5	-3.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.41,0.23,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.24,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 121, SEA 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.62,0.56,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.02,0,0,0	94.4%
SAC 113, DET 110	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.56,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.12,0.22,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.02,0	94.0%
ATL 93, MEM 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.56,0.41,0.27,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.16,0.17,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	93.0%