NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	121		Excitement	6.5 [466]		MVP	Randy Foye (MIN): +10.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	116		Comeback	3.4 [316]		LVP	Earl Watson (SEA): -10.1%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Foye	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.02	18	51%	0.10	0	0.00	5	60%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	13	59%	0.15	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.03
Rashad McCants	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	8	59%	0.14	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.05
Ryan Gomes	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	18	55%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Craig Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	61%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03
Kirk Snyder	0.04	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	79%	0.15	5	-0.11	7	100%	0.05
Corey Brewer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	12	44%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Chris Richard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.02	8	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	11	74%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.03	15	67%	0.18	5	-0.09	6	100%	0.01
Mickael Gelabale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	10	50%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	13	55%	0.11	3	-0.10	7	71%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.05	7	73%	0.01	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	7	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	9	48%	-0.03	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.4	24.5	15.7	31.0	1.8	38.3	136.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +9.3%

MIN +16.0%

MIN +19.6%

MIN +1.3%

MIN +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SEA	NBA	MIN	SEA	NBA
this game	14.9	14.0	15.4	121.0	117.2	105.7
season	15.9	14.5		102.2	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.0		107.9	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.5	17.1	13.0	15.3	14.9
SEA	16.2	14.2	13.2	12.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Snyder	63	64	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.18	17	-12	29	14.3	16.0	-1.77	13.6	14.7	-1.10
Randy Foye	80	79	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.25	13	-8	21	15.0	14.7	0.26	13.8	14.7	-0.90
Rashad McCants	53	51	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.15	16	-11	27	13.2	16.9	-3.70	15.3	12.7	2.65
Chris Richard	41	40	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.10	17	-12	29	13.0	16.3	-3.28	14.0	14.1	-0.05
Ryan Gomes	63	63	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.21	12	-7	19	14.3	16.0	-1.77	13.8	14.5	-0.74
Corey Brewer	50	49	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.37	-12	17	-29	15.9	13.9	2.02	13.2	14.8	-1.60
Craig Smith	37	36	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.14	-7	12	-19	16.0	14.3	1.77	14.5	13.8	0.74
Al Jefferson	59	59	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.26	-12	17	-29	16.3	13.0	3.28	14.1	14.0	0.05
Marko Jaric	54	54	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	0.12	-19	24	-43	16.4	13.2	3.17	14.3	13.7	0.54

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	71	73	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.33	10	-15	25	13.5	15.5	-2.05	15.0	14.8	0.18
Johan Petro	60	58	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-3	1	14.2	13.8	0.43	15.2	14.5	0.79
Luke Ridnour	43	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.29	7	-12	19	13.2	14.7	-1.49	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Jeff Green	66	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-6	7	13.9	14.3	-0.41	15.5	13.6	1.94
Nick Collison	45	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-1	-3	13.5	14.5	-0.95	14.0	15.7	-1.64
Chris Wilcox	81	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	14.0	13.9	0.10	15.2	13.3	1.95
Earl Watson	56	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.06	-12	7	-19	14.7	13.2	1.49	15.1	14.7	0.41
Mickael Gelabale	37	37	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	5	-15	15.2	13.4	1.81	15.4	14.6	0.79
Damien Wilkins	36	35	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	7	-19	14.6	13.7	0.87	12.9	16.0	-3.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.62,0.56,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 88, MIA 79	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.41,0.23,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.24,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.02,0,0	94.4%
ATL 93, MEM 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.56,0.41,0.27,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.16,0.17,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	92.9%
WAS 94, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.08,0.15,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.7%