NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	90		Excitement	3.8 [1077]		MVP	Robin Lopez (NOH): +11.4%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.7 [1243]		LVP	Brian Roberts (NOH): -14.8%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robin Lopez	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.17	0.00	0.06	10	77%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.03	19	63%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Henry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	55%	0.03	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	12	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	6	38%	-0.00	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Lance Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	9	33%	-0.04	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	-0.00	-0.04	16	69%	0.18	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.17	-0.00	0.06	12	79%	0.14	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.02	6	92%	0.11	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.00	0.08	5	79%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	46%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	28.6	15.7	26.7	2.0	29.4	130.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.0%

MIA +0.6%

NOH -1.7%

MIA +16.6%

MIA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIA	NBA	NOH	MIA	NBA
this game	17.0	14.0	15.4	95.7	115.2	104.1
season	16.3	15.7		103.9	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.6		102.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.8	17.7	17.0	16.4	17.0
MIA	13.2	12.8	15.0	14.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	57	56	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.17	6	-22	28	16.6	17.6	-1.03	15.0	12.4	2.59
Roger Mason Jr.	31	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-17	18	16.6	17.1	-0.48	13.1	14.4	-1.26
Robin Lopez	57	56	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-16	16	16.9	17.0	-0.10	15.4	11.7	3.78
Darius Miller	45	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-12	8	16.3	17.6	-1.30	15.4	12.6	2.80
Al-Farouq Aminu	16	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	-9	2	18.0	16.8	1.24	11.9	14.4	-2.53
Greivis Vasquez	59	59	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-11	6	16.8	17.2	-0.32	14.9	12.4	2.50
Xavier Henry	42	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-10	4	17.6	16.4	1.18	13.4	14.4	-0.92
Brian Roberts	49	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.07	-14	-2	-12	16.8	17.2	-0.36	13.6	14.3	-0.76
Austin Rivers	40	39	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	-3	-10	17.3	16.7	0.53	13.5	14.3	-0.88
Lance Thomas	31	30	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	-1	-14	16.8	17.0	-0.19	11.9	15.0	-3.02
Jason Smith	43	42	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.14	-23	7	-30	17.7	16.4	1.26	12.1	15.5	-3.44

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	56	57	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.18	22	-6	28	14.0	13.9	0.04	17.5	16.2	1.24
Joel Anthony	29	27	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.05	10	6	4	12.8	14.5	-1.77	17.6	16.7	0.88
LeBron James	70	71	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	6	4	14.4	12.5	1.99	16.5	18.6	-2.11
Mike Miller	31	32	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.05	9	7	2	12.5	14.7	-2.24	17.9	16.5	1.47
Norris Cole	44	45	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	3	10	14.0	13.9	0.06	17.7	16.3	1.34
Ray Allen	30	31	0.29	0.20	0.09	-0.03	11	5	6	13.0	14.5	-1.48	17.6	16.7	0.91
Dwyane Wade	62	64	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	9	-2	14.5	13.0	1.48	16.4	18.1	-1.71
Mario Chalmers	48	49	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	13	-10	13.9	14.0	-0.06	16.3	17.7	-1.34
Chris Bosh	63	67	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	10	-4	14.5	12.8	1.77	16.7	17.6	-0.88
Udonis Haslem	27	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.19	-11	27	-38	14.4	13.8	0.62	16.7	17.1	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.38,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.88,0.83,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 85, UTA 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.86,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.83,0.92,0.89,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
NOP 112, POR 128	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.6%
MIL 83, CHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.89,0.95,1,1,1	95.6%