NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	5.8 [620]		MVP	Gary Neal (SAS): +16.2%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	3.1 [738]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -12.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.00	-0.04	12	65%	0.13	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	62%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	52%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Tobias Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	0.01	0.05	19	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	11	91%	0.02
Larry Sanders	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Doron Lamb	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	8	25%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.03	0.06	15	42%	-0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.02	16	56%	0.21	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Nando De Colo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	4	87%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	9	75%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	48%	0.05	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	15	52%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	36%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.02	11	67%	0.09	7	-0.15	11	91%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.4	28.5	14.8	25.2	2.4	30.5	129.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +51.9%

MIL -11.1%

SAS +13.0%

MIL -15.1%

SAS +11.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	13.7	14.8	15.4	97.1	110.0	104.1
season	14.7	15.2		101.6	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.3		99.5	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.7	16.8	14.2	11.5	13.7
SAS	16.1	15.2	13.5	14.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	37	35	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.05	5	-16	21	13.9	13.6	0.38	14.8	14.8	0.01
Marquis Daniels	60	58	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.05	4	-15	19	13.7	13.7	-0.05	15.0	14.6	0.43
John Henson	4	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-9	7	8.5	13.9	-5.42	17.4	14.7	2.72
Tobias Harris	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.06	-2	-9	7	6.0	13.9	-7.86	19.0	14.7	4.31
Larry Sanders	35	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-8	5	14.3	13.4	0.93	14.9	14.8	0.15
Doron Lamb	48	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-10	9	12.9	14.4	-1.45	15.0	14.6	0.41
Monta Ellis	82	79	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-8	5	13.5	14.4	-0.93	14.6	15.7	-1.07
Ekpe Udoh	53	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.05	-13	2	-15	15.2	12.1	3.13	14.5	15.1	-0.55
Brandon Jennings	82	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.11	-10	-1	-9	14.0	12.7	1.25	14.7	15.3	-0.55
Luc Mbah a Moute	42	42	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.12	-15	4	-19	13.7	13.7	0.05	14.6	15.0	-0.43
Ersan Ilyasova	65	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.17	-15	4	-19	13.1	14.8	-1.78	14.8	14.8	0.03

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nando De Colo	38	38	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.18	17	-6	23	14.3	15.2	-0.90	12.3	14.5	-2.22
James Anderson	25	25	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.05	21	-10	31	13.3	15.3	-2.00	13.8	13.7	0.18
Matt Bonner	50	52	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.11	18	-7	25	14.3	15.3	-1.04	13.6	13.8	-0.15
Tiago Splitter	52	52	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.20	9	2	7	15.2	14.5	0.70	12.2	15.3	-3.09
Gary Neal	67	68	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	7	-3	15.0	14.4	0.59	13.2	14.7	-1.46
Tim Duncan	53	55	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	6	-1	14.5	15.1	-0.62	15.3	11.8	3.52
Cory Joseph	19	20	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	10	-9	16.8	14.3	2.50	14.5	13.5	0.99
Boris Diaw	44	44	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	11	-11	14.7	14.9	-0.13	15.0	12.7	2.28
Tony Parker	75	77	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	15	-19	14.8	14.8	-0.03	13.5	14.4	-0.92
DeJuan Blair	25	25	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	16	-21	15.4	14.6	0.83	15.4	13.1	2.30
Manu Ginobili	52	54	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	22	-33	15.2	14.4	0.78	13.3	14.2	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 97, MIA 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1	93.4%
DEN 94, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.84,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.93,0.98,1,1	93.2%
UTA 77, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.79,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.0%