NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	6.8 [464]		MVP	Pau Gasol (LAL): +12.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	103		Comeback	2.8 [642]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -12.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Carter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	59%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	80%	0.09	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.04	23	53%	0.09	5	-0.13	13	92%	0.05
Nene	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	15	40%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	13	26%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.06	-0.02	8	67%	0.18	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	0.01	7	60%	0.12	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	15	51%	0.11	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.03
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	9	55%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	13	61%	0.10	7	-0.22	10	90%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	37.1	20.7	28.1	3.5	39.8	160.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +48.1%

LAL +1.3%

DEN -2.0%

DEN -3.9%

LAL +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	15.5	98.9	112.0	106.4
season	14.4	14.9		109.5	110.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		102.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	13.0	20.0	11.8	14.8
LAL	16.0	15.2	15.1	17.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	27	26	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-13	17	18.0	13.5	4.47	16.3	15.9	0.45
Nene	52	51	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.07	4	-13	17	14.6	15.1	-0.49	16.1	15.9	0.22
Anthony Carter	22	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.05	-3	-6	3	14.2	15.0	-0.80	15.8	16.1	-0.23
Kenyon Martin	71	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.13	-2	-7	5	15.2	13.7	1.40	15.8	16.7	-0.84
Carmelo Anthony	81	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-7	5	14.4	17.3	-2.92	15.8	17.2	-1.32
Linas Kleiza	39	37	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.24	-8	-1	-7	13.6	15.6	-1.97	16.7	15.6	1.09
Chauncey Billups	76	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	0	-9	15.1	13.8	1.26	16.1	15.5	0.63
Chris Andersen	47	44	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.15	-16	7	-23	15.8	13.8	2.00	15.7	16.3	-0.61
J.R. Smith	60	59	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	4	-17	13.6	16.9	-3.30	16.0	16.0	0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	63	64	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.30	17	-8	25	16.1	15.9	0.13	13.9	16.7	-2.79
Shannon Brown	26	25	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-4	17	17.4	15.5	1.90	14.8	14.8	-0.00
Kobe Bryant	86	89	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.23	11	-2	13	15.9	17.5	-1.58	14.9	13.5	1.39
Luke Walton	29	29	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	1	7	17.7	15.3	2.39	14.6	14.9	-0.31
Pau Gasol	87	90	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	3	3	15.9	18.0	-2.09	14.4	21.8	-7.39
Sasha Vujacic	7	7	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	8	-7	18.0	15.9	2.14	12.0	15.0	-3.02
Trevor Ariza	62	65	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	11	-13	15.2	17.8	-2.59	15.1	14.2	0.88
Derek Fisher	55	57	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	11	-13	15.5	16.8	-1.27	14.7	14.9	-0.20
Jordan Farmar	11	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	11	-13	15.4	16.1	-0.75	15.2	14.7	0.41
Andrew Bynum	34	36	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.05	-5	14	-19	16.2	15.9	0.34	17.4	13.2	4.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.84,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.93,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 99, SAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.2%
SEA 98, PHI 117	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.67,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.8%
CHI 90, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.7%