NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	5.1 [825]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +18.8%
Golden State Warriors	101		Comeback	5.5 [148]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -20.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Keith Bogans	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.04	15	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	17	55%	0.09	4	-0.13	4	25%	-0.04
Ronnie Brewer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	22%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
CJ Watson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.19	-0.03	-0.02	15	44%	0.04	9	-0.25	2	100%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.11	0.05	22	61%	0.24	2	-0.06	10	100%	0.07
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.05	0.01	15	70%	0.21	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.02	16	59%	0.09	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	15	36%	-0.04	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	1.8	30.3	15.6	27.1	2.7	36.0	134.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +12.9%

GSW +13.9%

CHI -9.3%

GSW +31.2%

GSW +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	GSW	NBA	CHI	GSW	NBA
this game	16.6	15.1	15.5	98.9	111.0	105.7
season	15.7	14.8		106.5	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.9		109.0	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.5	17.3	17.5	15.1	16.6
GSW	15.5	13.4	15.2	16.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	35	36	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.03	7	-18	25	17.0	16.4	0.61	15.0	15.1	-0.04
Keith Bogans	31	32	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.02	5	-16	21	17.2	16.3	0.91	14.8	15.2	-0.42
Omer Asik	5	4	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-8	5	21.4	16.3	5.09	20.0	14.8	5.17
Luol Deng	74	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-7	3	16.4	17.2	-0.79	15.5	13.3	2.17
Derrick Rose	76	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-6	1	16.4	17.7	-1.36	15.2	14.5	0.70
Carlos Boozer	84	86	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-5	-1	16.5	18.1	-1.68	14.8	20.0	-5.23
Taj Gibson	40	39	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	1	-13	17.8	15.6	2.15	14.4	15.5	-1.13
Ronnie Brewer	43	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	0	-11	15.5	17.6	-2.09	16.1	14.1	2.02
CJ Watson	22	20	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	3	-17	17.1	16.4	0.66	14.0	15.4	-1.35
Kyle Korver	45	46	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	1	-13	16.0	17.2	-1.26	14.5	15.6	-1.03

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	34	36	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.13	23	-12	35	15.1	15.0	0.15	18.1	15.6	2.51
Stephen Curry	84	84	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.14	14	-3	17	15.2	13.7	1.45	16.5	17.4	-0.90
Dorell Wright	91	91	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	15.1	0.0	15.05	16.6	0.0	16.59
Ekpe Udoh	26	25	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	5	1	15.0	15.1	-0.02	17.6	16.2	1.33
Monta Ellis	83	83	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	9	-7	15.2	13.1	2.12	16.5	17.1	-0.58
Reggie Williams	24	25	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.04	9	2	7	13.6	15.6	-2.00	14.1	17.5	-3.47
Andris Biedrins	53	52	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	14	-17	15.4	14.5	0.91	16.8	16.3	0.46
David Lee	60	59	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	18	-25	14.8	15.5	-0.60	16.3	17.1	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.84,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.93,0.98,1,1	92.7%
WAS 93, CHH 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.95,1	92.7%
BOS 93, CHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,1	92.7%