NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	93		Excitement	6.4 [514]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +37.6%
Chicago Bulls	101		Comeback	2.4 [650]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -15.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.28	0.20	0.11	0.03	17	74%	0.28	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	0.01	0.06	14	74%	0.18	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Nate Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	12	48%	0.02	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	8	39%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	60%	0.05	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Kendrick Perkins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	22%	-0.05	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.06
Rasheed Wallace	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	10	20%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.25	0.18	0.05	22	72%	0.42	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.04
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.02	0.03	20	67%	0.18	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	9	44%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	32%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.06	7	43%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	53.0	2.8	30.3	20.4	28.4	3.7	43.0	181.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +26.2%

CHI +2.1%

CHI +21.4%

CHI +1.4%

BOS -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHI	NBA	BOS	CHI	NBA
this game	16.2	15.6	15.3	103.3	111.0	106.0
season	15.5	14.7		105.7	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.9	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.2	15.6	18.3	14.0	16.2
CHI	17.0	12.7	16.0	17.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	52	53	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.06	5	-13	18	16.0	16.4	-0.38	15.7	15.5	0.17
Nate Robinson	28	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-6	4	13.1	17.6	-4.54	13.6	16.5	-2.97
Marquis Daniels	32	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-3	-2	17.0	15.7	1.29	15.6	15.6	-0.06
Kendrick Perkins	49	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-6	4	17.2	15.0	2.11	15.8	15.4	0.46
Ray Allen	67	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-9	10	16.0	16.7	-0.61	16.2	14.0	2.12
Paul Pierce	61	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-3	-2	16.0	16.7	-0.77	15.8	15.1	0.73
Michael Finley	27	28	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-4	0	14.8	16.8	-1.98	12.4	17.0	-4.62
Rasheed Wallace	34	34	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	2	-12	16.8	15.8	0.95	15.6	15.6	0.03
Rajon Rondo	66	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	0	-8	17.2	13.5	3.63	16.6	12.8	3.81
Glen Davis	34	34	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	2	-12	16.2	16.2	0.06	16.1	15.3	0.83

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	36	34	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.20	15	-7	22	16.6	15.0	1.68	18.5	14.8	3.74
Luol Deng	82	80	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.19	15	-7	22	15.5	16.6	-1.03	16.6	12.6	4.05
Derrick Rose	85	85	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.23	12	-4	16	15.7	14.7	1.03	16.3	14.0	2.33
Kirk Hinrich	80	78	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	3	2	15.4	16.9	-1.46	16.0	17.3	-1.31
Joakim Noah	88	87	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	2	4	15.6	17.0	-1.42	16.2	17.0	-0.83
Taj Gibson	48	48	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	8	-8	14.8	16.6	-1.81	15.3	17.2	-1.86
Jannero Pargo	17	17	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	9	-10	16.1	15.5	0.60	16.4	16.2	0.19
Hakim Warrick	10	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	13	-18	16.5	15.5	0.98	13.0	16.6	-3.65
Ronald Murray	9	10	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	15	-22	16.6	15.5	1.03	12.6	16.6	-4.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 78, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.84,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	92.9%
NYK 89, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.61,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.95,1,0.97,1,1	92.7%
CHI 90, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.7%