NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	7.0 [396]		MVP	Goran Dragic (PHX): +21.9%
Phoenix Suns	110		Comeback	2.3 [269]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -17.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0.18	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.05	0.01	8	85%	0.21	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
JaVale McGee	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.04	0.00	12	67%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	16	44%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Wilson Chandler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	9	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	7	78%	0.10	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	8	67%	0.12	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.03
Andre Miller	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	7	44%	-0.02	3	-0.15	4	75%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.11	0.02	12	75%	0.26	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.13	-0.02	11	54%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	16	51%	0.07	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Michael Beasley	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	15	50%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	15	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	10	46%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	13	43%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.6	30.2	15.0	23.3	2.5	32.2	132.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -17.2%

PHX +11.4%

PHX +6.9%

PHX +42.6%

PHX +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	14.6	16.7	15.4	109.9	118.3	104.1
season	14.4	15.2		108.4	99.7
opponent	15.1	15.4		106.3	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.6	16.3	14.5	16.1	14.6
PHX	17.6	13.2	16.8	19.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	31	34	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-14	18	13.6	15.1	-1.50	17.7	16.2	1.52
Timofey Mozgov	4	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-9	8	18.5	14.4	4.11	11.2	17.0	-5.71
Danilo Gallinari	66	69	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-13	16	14.6	14.5	0.13	16.8	16.5	0.28
Ty Lawson	67	70	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-6	2	14.6	14.5	0.10	16.2	18.3	-2.18
Wilson Chandler	24	25	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	-5	0	14.6	14.6	0.07	19.2	15.8	3.41
JaVale McGee	48	47	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-5	0	14.7	14.4	0.25	16.5	16.9	-0.40
Andre Iguodala	64	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-3	-4	13.6	16.9	-3.24	17.5	14.8	2.69
Corey Brewer	43	42	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	-2	-6	15.4	13.8	1.61	15.5	17.7	-2.12
Kenneth Faried	59	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	0	-10	14.6	14.6	-0.03	15.8	18.3	-2.42
Andre Miller	49	47	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.16	-17	7	-24	15.2	13.9	1.33	17.1	16.3	0.80

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markieff Morris	44	46	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.14	24	-14	38	18.0	15.6	2.45	15.4	13.8	1.61
Jared Dudley	73	71	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.28	13	-3	16	17.5	14.0	3.45	14.3	15.6	-1.32
Marcin Gortat	77	73	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-6	22	17.3	14.0	3.27	14.1	16.4	-2.33
Goran Dragic	60	58	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.19	11	-1	12	17.6	15.1	2.46	14.1	15.5	-1.43
Shannon Brown	54	53	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	3	4	16.6	16.9	-0.37	15.2	13.7	1.57
PJ Tucker	17	18	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	10	-10	12.6	17.6	-5.04	16.2	14.2	2.06
Michael Beasley	52	51	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.03	-1	11	-12	16.0	17.6	-1.65	14.0	15.3	-1.26
Sebastian Telfair	36	35	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.02	-5	15	-20	15.7	17.4	-1.66	15.2	14.2	0.97
Luis Scola	52	50	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.09	-15	25	-40	15.7	18.0	-2.35	14.4	14.8	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 97, NJN 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.78,0.62,0.71,0.94,1,1	93.4%
MIN 95, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.78,0.71,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.96,1	92.5%
IND 97, PHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.35,0.39,0.52,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.89,0.79,0.92,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.95,1	92.4%