NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	5.4 [710]		MVP	Eric Maynor (OKC): +17.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	105		Comeback	1.2 [1257]		LVP	Will Bynum (DET): -13.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.05	10	76%	0.10	1	-0.00	9	67%	-0.03
Kyle Singler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	70%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	48%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	16	47%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kim English	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.01	0.01	15	41%	-0.03	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01
Will Bynum	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.03	0.00	6	108%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.01	16	68%	0.17	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.05	0.04	13	74%	0.19	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	14	48%	0.09	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Perry Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.00	10	42%	0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	28.2	16.3	27.8	2.0	34.3	136.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +49.8%

OKC +12.0%

DET -9.1%

DET -1.2%

DET -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	OKC	NBA	DET	OKC	NBA
this game	16.5	14.1	15.4	100.0	111.7	104.1
season	15.7	14.8		102.3	109.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		100.6	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	15.4	19.9	16.4	16.5
OKC	14.4	14.0	13.7	14.2	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Knight	71	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.19	1	-12	13	16.6	16.3	0.30	14.2	13.9	0.31
Andre Drummond	42	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-11	11	16.3	16.7	-0.36	13.9	14.2	-0.32
Jason Maxiell	37	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-7	3	17.8	15.7	2.06	14.3	14.0	0.26
Tayshaun Prince	70	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.13	-2	-9	7	16.3	17.1	-0.80	14.2	13.7	0.53
Rodney Stuckey	72	72	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.16	-1	-10	9	15.9	18.5	-2.51	14.2	13.7	0.49
Kim English	17	16	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-5	-1	18.9	16.0	2.87	13.8	14.2	-0.35
Jonas Jerebko	41	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-2	-7	15.2	17.5	-2.28	14.3	14.0	0.34
Will Bynum	23	25	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	1	-13	16.3	16.6	-0.30	13.9	14.2	-0.31
Greg Monroe	68	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	-2	-7	16.7	16.0	0.79	14.0	14.3	-0.32
Kyle Singler	29	30	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.01	-13	2	-15	17.1	16.3	0.83	13.7	14.3	-0.65

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	48	49	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	1	9	13.5	14.7	-1.15	18.2	14.7	3.45
Eric Maynor	35	36	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.05	14	-3	17	13.2	14.6	-1.44	16.1	16.8	-0.77
Serge Ibaka	68	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	8	-5	14.2	13.8	0.41	17.0	15.2	1.85
Kevin Durant	73	73	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	4	3	14.3	13.4	0.87	16.7	15.9	0.87
Kevin Martin	66	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	8	-5	14.3	13.6	0.76	15.3	19.3	-3.97
Kendrick Perkins	55	55	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	11	-11	15.3	12.5	2.81	16.9	16.0	0.87
Nick Collison	42	41	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.01	7	4	3	12.5	15.4	-2.90	15.5	17.3	-1.85
Reggie Jackson	13	13	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.09	9	2	7	13.7	14.2	-0.48	15.1	16.8	-1.69
Russell Westbrook	60	60	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.26	-4	15	-19	14.5	13.4	1.04	16.8	16.1	0.70
Perry Jones	10	10	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.06	6	5	1	14.9	14.0	0.89	15.9	16.6	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.7,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 90, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.8%
UTA 94, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.82,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1	95.1%
MIN 102, IND 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.68,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.75,0.87,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	94.6%