NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	7.1 [374]		MVP	Kevin Martin (OKC): +27.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	95		Comeback	3.0 [97]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -15.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.10	0.01	19	57%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Louis Williams	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.02	0.15	-0.01	14	51%	0.26	2	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
Ivan Johnson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.08	-0.00	6	71%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Anthony Morrow	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	2	125%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	58%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Jeff Teague	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	12	62%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	9	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.21	0.06	-0.01	11	100%	0.42	4	-0.14	6	100%	0.03
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.00	9	70%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	5	64%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	17	52%	0.11	6	-0.21	8	87%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	18	37%	-0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	0.7	30.3	15.4	23.3	1.6	33.5	128.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +25.9%

OKC -11.1%

OKC -2.7%

ATL +31.9%

ATL +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	OKC	NBA	ATL	OKC	NBA
this game	16.6	14.5	15.4	111.8	103.3	104.1
season	15.1	14.8		102.6	109.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		100.6	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.8	17.6	17.2	17.0	16.6
OKC	15.9	14.5	15.5	12.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	46	44	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.23	14	-5	19	16.3	16.9	-0.61	14.1	14.9	-0.85
Zaza Pachulia	54	53	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	4	1	16.6	16.6	-0.05	14.3	14.7	-0.40
Louis Williams	56	53	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	3	3	15.9	17.6	-1.68	14.2	14.9	-0.67
Al Horford	62	62	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.16	9	0	9	17.3	15.3	1.98	14.4	14.7	-0.33
DeShawn Stevenson	65	66	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	5	-1	17.3	15.0	2.26	14.0	15.8	-1.81
Anthony Morrow	28	26	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	4	1	15.0	17.3	-2.26	15.8	14.0	1.81
Ivan Johnson	25	24	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	4	1	15.5	17.0	-1.49	15.7	14.1	1.62
Kyle Korver	36	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	8	-7	17.7	15.9	1.72	14.8	14.3	0.50
Anthony Tolliver	45	45	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	10	-11	16.3	16.9	-0.54	14.2	14.8	-0.57
Jeff Teague	48	50	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	12	-15	16.9	16.3	0.58	15.0	14.0	1.03

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	9	8	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-10	11	16.0	14.3	1.65	18.4	16.4	1.93
Hasheem Thabeet	13	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-5	1	16.0	14.3	1.73	15.1	16.8	-1.76
Kendrick Perkins	59	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-6	3	13.7	15.9	-2.23	16.9	16.1	0.89
Eric Maynor	22	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-5	1	15.6	14.2	1.48	15.5	17.0	-1.56
Thabo Sefolosha	45	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	0	-9	15.0	14.0	1.00	17.5	15.8	1.71
Russell Westbrook	70	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-4	-1	14.2	15.6	-1.48	17.0	15.5	1.56
Nick Collison	33	35	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-3	-3	15.9	13.7	2.23	16.1	16.9	-0.89
Serge Ibaka	70	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-5	1	14.5	14.5	0.01	16.5	17.0	-0.44
Kevin Durant	81	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.16	-8	-1	-7	14.2	16.8	-2.62	16.5	17.4	-0.85
Kevin Martin	58	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-6	3	14.0	15.4	-1.43	16.3	17.2	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.68,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.23,0.31,0.21,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 102, UTA 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.79,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.05,0,0,0	92.1%
BOS 110, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.4,0.28,0.14,0.02,0,0,0	91.6%
SEA 103, DEN 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.39,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.31,0.07,0.16,0,0	91.5%