NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	72		Excitement	4.0 [805]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +15.9%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	2.0 [810]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -11.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	12	67%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Ed Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	-0.05	-0.10	18	39%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	10	41%	-0.03	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Solomon Alabi	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Uzoh	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	33%	-0.01	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	14	39%	-0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.03	-0.00	15	82%	0.30	5	-0.14	4	75%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	7	67%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	-0.00	0.06	8	81%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	8	42%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	70%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrel Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.01	4	90%	0.08	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	54%	-0.01	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	5	60%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	7	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	-0.01	-0.07	8	12%	-0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.0	31.7	15.5	25.0	1.8	25.3	126.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.5%

TOR -3.0%

MIA +12.3%

TOR -4.5%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	18.1	15.8	15.6	84.7	112.9	102.8
season	16.5	15.5		98.9	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		98.8	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	19.0	16.9	19.9	16.9	18.1
MIA	16.2	15.9	16.1	15.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Solomon Alabi	17	17	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.04	-2	-22	20	16.2	18.6	-2.38	17.5	15.4	2.09
Ben Uzoh	58	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-20	16	18.3	17.6	0.66	17.0	13.3	3.67
Gary Forbes	52	52	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.33	-19	-5	-14	17.4	19.2	-1.80	15.3	16.5	-1.17
James Johnson	44	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.28	-18	-6	-12	17.6	18.6	-0.97	16.1	15.4	0.69
Ed Davis	58	58	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.31	-19	-5	-14	17.6	19.2	-1.62	14.7	18.3	-3.60
Aaron Gray	25	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-17	10	19.4	17.5	1.87	16.1	15.7	0.39
Amir Johnson	39	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-16	8	18.6	17.7	0.89	14.5	16.8	-2.23
DeMar DeRozan	49	52	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.02	-17	-7	-10	19.1	16.6	2.50	17.3	13.4	3.93
Alan Anderson	83	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.23	-26	2	-28	18.1	16.5	1.62	15.1	30.7	-15.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	54	54	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.01	20	4	16	14.8	17.6	-2.85	18.4	17.6	0.79
Mario Chalmers	44	45	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	10	4	15.0	16.7	-1.66	18.2	17.9	0.34
Udonis Haslem	43	44	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	13	-2	14.5	17.1	-2.56	18.1	18.1	-0.03
Juwan Howard	23	23	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	10	4	15.3	16.0	-0.62	18.0	18.1	-0.17
Mike Miller	41	41	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.27	18	6	12	14.9	16.7	-1.83	17.3	18.8	-1.48
Dexter Pittman	25	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	22	-20	15.6	15.9	-0.23	18.5	17.9	0.68
James Jones	55	57	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.10	8	16	-8	17.2	13.2	3.97	18.5	17.1	1.40
Shane Battier	45	42	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.25	13	11	2	16.7	14.8	1.89	17.9	18.3	-0.45
Norris Cole	38	38	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.24	11	13	-2	16.5	15.3	1.22	18.2	18.0	0.14
Joel Anthony	35	32	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.19	7	17	-10	16.5	15.3	1.26	18.7	17.7	1.02
Eddy Curry	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	21	-18	14.6	15.9	-1.34	15.4	18.3	-2.89
Terrel Harris	15	14	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	25	-26	18.4	15.2	3.16	16.5	18.4	-1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 105, UTA 117	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%
SAC 85, LAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.71,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
MIN 103, HOU 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%