NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	6.2 [457]		MVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): +11.0%
Sacramento Kings	116		Comeback	1.6 [645]		LVP	Derrick Williams (MIN): -9.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Pekovic	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.02	0.04	8	85%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Wesley Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	7	79%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.01	0.06	17	57%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	69%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Martell Webster	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Lee	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.03	4	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	14	39%	-0.01	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Derrick Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	10	36%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.02	14	62%	0.12	1	-0.01	11	73%	-0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	13	61%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	15	59%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.02	12	65%	0.13	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Terrence Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	11	50%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	28.6	15.6	27.7	1.6	34.5	133.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +10.9%

SAC +9.7%

SAC +17.7%

SAC +7.3%

SAC +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAC	NBA	MIN	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	15.1	15.6	117.4	124.7	102.8
season	15.3	14.9		102.6	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.1		107.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	17.3	16.9	16.4	14.0	16.1
SAC	15.4	15.9	15.6	13.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Johnson	40	40	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.03	6	-14	20	16.8	15.4	1.41	16.0	14.4	1.69
Martell Webster	44	45	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.00	3	-11	14	16.9	15.3	1.55	15.5	14.7	0.82
Luke Ridnour	56	55	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-11	14	16.8	14.9	1.82	15.9	13.8	2.10
Nikola Pekovic	36	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-9	10	16.2	15.9	0.28	14.9	15.2	-0.28
Derrick Williams	41	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-5	2	15.7	16.3	-0.63	14.3	15.8	-1.50
Brad Miller	41	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	-2	-4	17.1	15.2	1.93	15.5	14.7	0.81
Kevin Love	66	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	0	-8	15.5	17.4	-1.91	15.4	14.3	1.16
Malcolm Lee	36	38	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	3	-14	14.9	16.8	-1.82	13.8	15.9	-2.10
Anthony Tolliver	48	48	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.27	-11	3	-14	15.3	16.9	-1.55	14.7	15.5	-0.82
Wayne Ellington	52	53	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	6	-20	15.4	16.8	-1.41	14.4	16.0	-1.69

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Williams	63	61	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.24	14	-6	20	15.3	14.5	0.82	15.0	18.1	-3.13
Hassan Whiteside	26	24	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.08	17	-9	26	13.1	15.9	-2.74	17.3	15.6	1.67
Jimmer Fredette	49	47	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.19	12	-4	16	15.0	15.2	-0.22	16.4	15.7	0.63
Tyreke Evans	76	74	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	-8	24	14.3	18.4	-4.07	16.1	16.1	-0.00
Donte Greene	40	40	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	5	-2	13.2	16.5	-3.27	15.5	16.5	-0.94
Charles Hayes	25	24	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	1	6	15.3	15.0	0.32	17.0	15.7	1.34
Isaiah Thomas	51	52	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.17	-6	14	-20	16.0	14.0	2.02	15.5	16.7	-1.23
DeMarcus Cousins	57	58	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.14	-6	14	-20	15.8	13.9	1.91	15.6	16.8	-1.22
Marcus Thornton	15	15	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	13	-18	16.8	14.8	2.04	17.5	15.8	1.77
Francisco Garcia	25	27	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	12	-16	14.0	15.5	-1.49	18.1	15.2	2.91
Jason Thompson	38	38	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.08	-8	16	-24	17.1	13.7	3.46	15.9	16.2	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.76,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 95, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.86,0.92,0.98,0.93,1,1,1,1	93.4%
CHH 99, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%
LAC 87, SAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%