NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	101		Excitement	6.7 [377]		MVP	Ivan Johnson (ATL): +23.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	108		Comeback	1.9 [530]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -19.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ivan Johnson	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.16	0.12	0.04	7	94%	0.24	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Smith	0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	26	54%	0.10	4	-0.09	4	25%	-0.06
Tracy McGrady	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	11	48%	-0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	48%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	8	83%	0.13	7	-0.21	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	14	35%	-0.12	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0,0,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.09	0.03	24	63%	0.29	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.02	10	65%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	7	86%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	13	60%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	16	42%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.4	24.4	15.5	26.4	2.5	27.5	121.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +24.3%

MIL +9.7%

ATL -5.1%

MIL +25.0%

ATL -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	13.9	15.6	103.1	111.3	102.8
season	15.7	14.6		102.5	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		103.4	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.9	17.2	16.0	16.0	15.6
MIL	12.2	13.5	14.7	15.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	14	13	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-4	1	18.0	15.2	2.76	12.7	14.1	-1.39
Joe Johnson	60	60	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.32	8	-15	23	15.8	15.3	0.52	14.6	12.7	1.97
Josh Smith	85	85	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.27	3	-10	13	15.2	18.7	-3.53	13.9	13.7	0.26
Jeff Teague	75	76	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-6	5	15.4	16.5	-1.16	13.8	14.2	-0.44
Willie Green	15	13	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.10	-12	5	-17	16.2	15.5	0.67	11.2	14.3	-3.17
Zaza Pachulia	67	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-2	-3	16.0	14.7	1.30	13.3	15.1	-1.79
Kirk Hinrich	75	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-7	7	15.5	16.2	-0.71	14.2	12.7	1.51
Ivan Johnson	44	44	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	5	-17	15.9	15.4	0.50	14.7	13.2	1.48
Marvin Williams	55	53	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.15	-13	6	-19	15.3	16.1	-0.86	13.7	14.2	-0.48

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	81	82	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	3	1	13.9	14.1	-0.27	15.3	17.4	-2.08
Mike Dunleavy	59	59	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	1	5	14.4	13.1	1.30	16.5	14.4	2.12
Luc Mbah a Moute	70	71	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	2	3	13.6	14.6	-0.96	14.7	18.0	-3.27
Monta Ellis	83	85	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.35	-2	9	-11	13.9	14.1	-0.20	15.3	17.8	-2.46
Beno Udrih	30	29	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.10	12	-5	17	14.1	13.8	0.29	17.6	14.8	2.73
Ekpe Udoh	64	65	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	2	3	13.8	14.1	-0.25	15.8	15.4	0.36
Drew Gooden	71	72	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	11	-15	13.7	14.3	-0.56	15.0	17.3	-2.28
Larry Sanders	27	27	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.07	9	-2	11	14.1	13.8	0.25	17.5	14.9	2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.59,0.46,0.6,0.76,0.96,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 99, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.98,0.95,1	92.0%
CHA 81, OKC 84	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.4,0.61,0.74,0.9,0.94,0.92,1	91.4%
DET 103, PHI 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.66,0.62,0.84,0.95,0.99,1	91.1%