NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	7.8 [318]		MVP	Robert Covington (PHI): +25.8%
Philadelphia 76ers	108		Comeback	2.6 [611]		LVP	Avery Bradley (DET): -22.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.07	0.05	15	73%	0.25	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.09	-0.04	8	43%	0.14	0	0.00	5	80%	0.10
Andre Drummond	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	8	58%	0.12	1	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.11	-0.02	0.03	13	78%	0.16	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.03
Luke Kennard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	64%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Eric Moreland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Boban Marjanovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	8	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	11	27%	-0.11	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.11	0.13	-0.02	19	61%	0.30	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.04
Dario Saric	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	11	68%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.11	-0.02	0.01	10	69%	0.16	1	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Ben Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.11	-0.02	-0.13	6	36%	0.03	4	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Embiid	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.14,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.12	0.06	-0.03	21	46%	0.15	6	-0.18	12	92%	0.08
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	41%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	0.2	31.4	14.6	29.4	2.3	39.5	146.3
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +36.1%

DET -9.4%

PHI +21.1%

PHI +6.7%

DET -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	PHI	NBA	DET	PHI	NBA
this game	13.8	15.0	14.7	102.0	109.1	107.5
season	14.9	13.9		106.4	108.1
opponent	14.7	14.7		103.8	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.8	15.1	10.0	13.8	13.8
PHI	13.8	14.3	17.3	14.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Langston Galloway	25	25	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.11	10	-15	25	10.5	14.9	-4.36	14.3	15.3	-0.98
Ish Smith	42	40	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.17	-3	-2	-1	13.9	13.7	0.22	13.6	16.0	-2.41
Luke Kennard	45	45	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.21	-5	0	-5	13.6	14.0	-0.36	13.7	16.1	-2.34
Anthony Tolliver	30	30	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.09	-2	-3	1	13.6	13.9	-0.24	12.2	16.2	-4.08
Andre Drummond	74	71	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.27	8	-13	21	13.5	14.7	-1.23	15.8	13.1	2.70
Boban Marjanovic	12	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	0	-5	14.2	13.7	0.51	12.7	15.3	-2.57
Eric Moreland	15	17	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	3	-11	15.1	13.6	1.49	13.3	15.4	-2.07
Tobias Harris	71	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.45	-3	-2	-1	13.9	13.6	0.24	16.2	12.2	4.08
Reggie Jackson	59	59	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.53	-2	-3	1	13.7	13.9	-0.22	16.0	13.6	2.41
Avery Bradley	60	59	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.44	-6	1	-7	14.2	13.2	0.94	15.4	14.5	0.86
Stanley Johnson	72	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.37	-9	4	-13	14.7	11.4	3.30	15.8	13.2	2.64

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Covington	79	81	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.50	8	-3	11	15.3	14.0	1.20	13.9	13.2	0.69
Ben Simmons	81	82	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.43	6	-1	7	15.3	13.7	1.64	14.0	13.2	0.79
Joel Embiid	62	64	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	4	-3	16.2	13.0	3.17	13.9	13.6	0.33
JJ Redick	73	76	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.50	-8	13	-21	14.9	15.3	-0.35	13.2	15.6	-2.39
Dario Saric	62	65	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	10	-15	15.9	13.5	2.43	13.1	15.0	-1.90
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	28	28	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.17	10	-5	15	13.2	15.7	-2.50	15.7	13.1	2.65
Amir Johnson	35	35	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	0	5	13.5	15.8	-2.31	14.1	13.6	0.52
Jerryd Bayless	56	54	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.16	7	-2	9	13.9	16.4	-2.53	13.9	13.7	0.23
Nik Stauskas	19	20	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	4	-3	14.9	15.0	-0.14	13.1	14.0	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.66,0.62,0.84,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 99, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.98,0.95,1	92.0%
HOU 91, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.89,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.47,0.33,0.28,0.53,0.41,0.67,0.69,0.88,0.94,1,1	92.0%
MEM 92, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.6,0.69,0.85,0.93,0.92,1	91.5%