NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	4.2 [766]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +14.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	103		Comeback	1.1 [667]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -12.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	11	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.02	10	81%	0.18	6	-0.16	7	100%	0.03
Ronny Turiaf	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	64%	0.09	5	-0.12	6	100%	0.02
LeBron James	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	18	46%	0.04	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	5	30%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.02	-0.02	20	62%	0.18	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.02	-0.05	7	90%	0.23	7	-0.10	7	86%	0.02
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.02	11	73%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.14	0.01	0.07	10	83%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lazar Hayward	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.00	-0.01	16	36%	-0.05	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.5	34.7	18.7	24.1	2.7	33.3	143.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +13.5%

OKC +5.1%

OKC +7.4%

OKC +22.0%

OKC +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	15.9	15.1	15.6	94.6	109.6	102.8
season	15.5	14.7		105.6	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.8		101.9	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	18.3	14.5	14.3	15.9
OKC	14.8	13.8	14.9	17.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	6	8	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-18	20	12.8	16.1	-3.25	14.4	15.2	-0.80
Ronny Turiaf	18	20	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-17	18	19.4	15.0	4.44	14.4	15.3	-0.83
Norris Cole	21	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-11	6	18.9	15.0	3.93	14.2	15.4	-1.18
Mario Chalmers	47	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.10	-2	-14	12	15.4	16.3	-0.91	15.2	15.0	0.11
Joel Anthony	31	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-11	6	14.9	16.3	-1.41	14.5	15.4	-0.91
LeBron James	78	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	-6	-4	15.2	19.4	-4.20	15.6	12.6	3.00
Udonis Haslem	61	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	-4	-8	16.4	14.8	1.55	15.2	15.0	0.21
Shane Battier	52	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.08	-18	2	-20	16.8	14.7	2.07	15.1	15.1	0.01
Dwyane Wade	74	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.06	-14	-2	-12	15.5	17.4	-1.89	15.1	15.2	-0.06
Chris Bosh	72	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.01	-17	1	-18	15.0	18.9	-3.94	15.2	14.7	0.55

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	81	80	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.04	13	3	10	15.4	13.4	2.00	16.0	14.7	1.38
Serge Ibaka	64	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.02	15	1	14	15.5	14.2	1.33	14.4	19.0	-4.57
Russell Westbrook	67	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	4	8	15.4	14.4	1.03	14.8	18.5	-3.67
Kendrick Perkins	66	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	1	14	15.0	15.4	-0.41	15.3	17.3	-1.95
James Harden	62	60	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	6	4	15.2	14.9	0.30	16.0	15.5	0.52
Thabo Sefolosha	41	41	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	5	6	14.2	15.8	-1.57	15.6	16.1	-0.42
Derek Fisher	33	31	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.02	6	10	-4	14.1	15.6	-1.52	17.7	14.9	2.82
Nazr Mohammed	10	9	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	14	-12	16.1	15.0	1.11	22.3	15.2	7.16
Nick Collison	35	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	20	-24	15.9	14.7	1.20	17.2	15.1	2.05
Lazar Hayward	5	5	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	16	-16	10.0	15.4	-5.39	12.0	16.1	-4.09
Royal Ivey	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	13.5	15.1	-1.64	22.5	15.7	6.78
Reggie Jackson	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	13.5	15.1	-1.64	22.5	15.7	6.78
Cole Aldrich	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	13.5	15.1	-1.64	22.5	15.7	6.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.8,0.9,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.1%
IND 76, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
SAC 99, MIN 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.93,0.97,0.93,0.99,1,1	95.9%