NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	85		Excitement	4.0 [809]		MVP	John Lucas III (CHI): +13.0%
Orlando Magic	59		Comeback	1.4 [524]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -16.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Lucas III	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.02	0.03	13	77%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	18	67%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	78%	0.05	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	5	40%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Omer Asik	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Luol Deng	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	13	47%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.02	12	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	8	6%	-0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	12	58%	0.04	4	-0.05	7	29%	-0.06
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	13	38%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	3	14%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	7	19%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.03	0.02	11	41%	-0.06	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	3.7	30.4	19.3	26.8	3.0	29.2	138.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +28.8%

CHI +3.4%

CHI +5.2%

CHI +9.2%

CHI +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	18.3	15.4	15.6	100.0	68.6	102.8
season	16.0	16.2		104.7	102.8
opponent	15.8	15.9		103.0	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.3	19.0	17.1	19.8	18.3
ORL	16.2	12.3	15.6	18.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	77	79	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.23	21	5	16	18.3	17.7	0.59	15.4	16.0	-0.63
John Lucas III	37	36	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.38	25	1	24	19.2	17.6	1.56	15.9	15.1	0.76
Carlos Boozer	62	63	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.24	19	7	12	18.1	18.7	-0.57	15.8	14.4	1.34
Ronnie Brewer	43	44	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	14	-2	17.0	19.6	-2.64	16.1	14.7	1.33
Kyle Korver	46	47	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.26	19	7	12	19.7	16.6	3.13	14.5	16.5	-2.05
Joakim Noah	56	56	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.27	19	7	12	18.6	17.7	0.95	15.6	15.2	0.39
Omer Asik	29	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	19	-12	17.7	18.6	-0.95	15.2	15.6	-0.39
Taj Gibson	23	23	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	19	-12	18.7	18.1	0.57	14.4	15.8	-1.34
CJ Watson	48	50	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.11	1	25	-24	17.6	19.2	-1.56	15.1	15.9	-0.76
Jimmy Butler	3	2	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	26	-26	17.0	18.3	-1.33	25.0	15.2	9.81
Brian Scalabrine	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	26	-26	8.0	18.4	-10.40	0.0	15.4	-15.42

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre Liggins	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-22	18	22.5	15.1	7.43	17.2	18.3	-1.08
Earl Clark	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-26	26	25.0	15.2	9.81	17.0	18.3	-1.33
Ish Smith	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-22	18	22.5	15.1	7.43	17.2	18.3	-1.08
Hedo Turkoglu	45	46	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-26	26	15.8	15.0	0.71	18.6	17.9	0.71
Jameer Nelson	53	54	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-24	22	15.6	15.2	0.43	18.4	18.1	0.34
Jason Richardson	49	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.18	-13	-13	0	17.1	13.1	4.01	17.9	18.8	-0.94
Ryan Anderson	56	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.12	-11	-15	4	14.7	16.7	-1.97	18.6	17.7	0.95
JJ Redick	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	-13	0	13.1	17.1	-4.01	18.8	17.9	0.94
Glen Davis	40	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	-10	-6	15.2	15.6	-0.36	18.4	18.2	0.19
Chris Duhon	29	27	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.26	-20	-6	-14	14.1	16.1	-1.93	18.2	18.3	-0.14
Quentin Richardson	37	35	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.19	-22	-4	-18	14.2	16.3	-2.06	18.0	18.5	-0.53
Dwight Howard	74	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.26	-25	-1	-24	15.8	13.2	2.62	18.0	19.8	-1.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.31,0.18,0.22,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 94, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
UTA 91, SEA 74	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
LAC 96, UTA 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.14,0.03,0,0,0	95.2%