NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	75		Excitement	6.3 [440]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +18.2%
Toronto Raptors	83		Comeback	4.1 [273]		LVP	Nate Robinson (GSW): -22.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.05	-0.01	13	71%	0.24	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
Chris Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ekpe Udoh	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Brandon Rush	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	7	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Monta Ellis	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	22	43%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dominic McGuire	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	9	17%	-0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	0.00	12	25%	-0.17	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.00	17	62%	0.20	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	16	53%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.04	0.01	8	55%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.07	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	28%	-0.03	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.03
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	9	22%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	28.9	14.8	22.2	2.4	34.6	128.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +22.0%

TOR +14.1%

TOR +12.7%

TOR +1.4%

GSW -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	15.9	15.9	15.6	83.3	91.2	102.8
season	15.2	16.5		103.6	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.4		102.9	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.7	15.3	18.7	14.0	15.9
TOR	16.3	18.2	14.0	15.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	13	12	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-9	10	15.8	15.9	-0.06	17.2	15.7	1.53
Dorell Wright	33	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.07	-3	-5	2	17.2	15.2	1.98	14.6	16.7	-2.02
Klay Thompson	22	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-5	2	16.2	15.8	0.43	17.0	15.6	1.44
Ekpe Udoh	57	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-4	0	17.1	13.8	3.38	16.3	15.2	1.04
Dominic McGuire	72	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-5	2	15.4	18.0	-2.62	15.3	18.6	-3.28
Monta Ellis	73	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	15.9	16.0	-0.12	15.7	16.9	-1.23
Nate Robinson	49	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.21	-9	1	-10	14.9	17.0	-2.11	16.2	15.6	0.66
Brandon Rush	57	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.34	-5	-3	-2	15.2	17.2	-1.98	16.7	14.6	2.02
David Lee	74	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.25	-8	0	-8	16.0	15.3	0.71	15.8	16.6	-0.85

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	87	85	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.25	11	-3	14	15.8	18.2	-2.43	16.0	14.8	1.16
Leandro Barbosa	59	59	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	1	6	16.5	14.9	1.57	15.4	16.9	-1.53
Ed Davis	40	40	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-4	16	16.4	15.5	0.90	16.4	15.5	0.85
James Johnson	62	62	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	-1	10	15.2	17.4	-2.14	16.1	15.4	0.79
Amir Johnson	59	57	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	5	-2	15.5	16.7	-1.23	16.0	15.8	0.18
Jerryd Bayless	47	46	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.17	4	4	0	17.4	14.3	3.06	15.4	16.4	-0.95
Jose Calderon	49	48	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	0	8	14.6	17.5	-2.88	17.0	14.7	2.31
Aaron Gray	26	27	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	13	-18	15.0	16.3	-1.35	15.2	16.2	-1.02
Linas Kleiza	26	26	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.01	-9	17	-26	17.7	15.2	2.42	15.0	16.3	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.85,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 96, WAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.36,0.5,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.96,0.91,0.89,0.93,1,1,1	93.2%
NYK 86, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.44,0.44,0.55,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.98,1	93.0%
IND 102, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.34,0.4,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	92.9%