NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	85		Excitement	7.8 [230]		MVP	David Lee (GSW): +19.4%
Atlanta Hawks	82		Comeback	1.7 [210]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -32.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,0.06,0,0.19	-0.03	0.21	-0.01	21	48%	0.28	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Klay Thompson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nate Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Ekpe Udoh	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Curry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.05	-0.11	0.09	0.02	27	41%	0.04	4	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Brandon Rush	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.12	0.12	-0.04	0.15	-0.01	14	39%	0.16	1	-0.04	5	60%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	15	34%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	17	47%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.07,0.07,-0.14	-0.14	0.03	-0.17	-0.00	14	52%	-0.08	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.21,-0.25,-0.29,-0.24,-0.31,-0.32,-0.32,-0.33	-0.33	-0.18	-0.16	-0.01	20	29%	-0.26	2	-0.07	8	50%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.7	26.2	15.4	22.8	1.7	42.0	131.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +62.2%

GSW +6.5%

ATL -21.9%

GSW +2.4%

GSW +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ATL	NBA	GSW	ATL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.2	15.6	92.4	87.2	102.8
season	15.2	15.7		103.6	102.5
opponent	15.9	15.4		99.5	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.7	14.8	17.1	16.6	15.7
ATL	14.1	16.5	17.1	13.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Rush	55	58	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.41	7	-4	11	15.8	15.7	0.11	15.3	15.2	0.11
Dominic McGuire	69	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.50	0	3	-3	16.0	15.0	1.04	15.0	15.8	-0.74
Nate Robinson	31	32	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-11	25	15.5	15.9	-0.38	14.2	15.8	-1.63
Klay Thompson	27	30	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	-9	21	17.0	15.2	1.84	15.8	15.0	0.88
David Lee	77	79	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.34	0	3	-3	15.2	18.3	-3.10	15.4	14.5	0.91
Ekpe Udoh	60	58	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	-2	7	15.7	15.8	-0.16	16.1	13.8	2.36
Stephen Curry	0	1	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.14	2	1	1	0.0	15.7	-15.74	15.0	15.2	-0.24
Monta Ellis	69	70	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.39	-7	10	-17	15.4	16.7	-1.22	15.2	15.2	0.03
Dorell Wright	54	54	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.00	-6	9	-15	15.8	15.7	0.05	15.5	14.9	0.58
Andris Biedrins	18	20	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.14	-12	15	-27	16.6	15.5	1.02	12.7	15.9	-3.16

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jannero Pargo	7	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-4	5	15.0	15.3	-0.25	20.3	15.4	4.92
Josh Smith	78	76	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.36	8	-11	19	14.9	16.7	-1.83	15.9	14.9	1.05
Jeff Teague	73	70	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.34	7	-10	17	15.2	15.4	-0.25	15.8	15.5	0.31
Ivan Johnson	12	13	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	4	-11	15.7	15.2	0.50	12.1	16.3	-4.26
Tracy McGrady	13	13	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	6	-15	17.3	14.9	2.41	14.0	16.0	-2.03
Zaza Pachulia	71	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-7	11	15.8	13.6	2.21	16.3	14.2	2.09
Joe Johnson	74	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-8	13	14.9	16.5	-1.61	15.6	16.2	-0.59
Willie Green	38	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	5	-13	15.8	14.9	0.93	16.4	15.3	1.07
Kirk Hinrich	24	24	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	8	-19	14.0	15.7	-1.66	14.3	16.2	-1.96
Marvin Williams	80	78	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.47	-5	2	-7	15.1	15.7	-0.56	15.8	15.5	0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.31,0.36,0.22,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 89, HOU 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.42,0.31,0.19,0.4,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.15,0	91.9%
SAS 86, DEN 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.21,0.05,0.17,0	91.8%
DET 95, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.04,0	91.6%