NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	6.7 [517]		MVP	Robert Horry (SAS): +10.2%
Denver Nuggets	78		Comeback	1.7 [346]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -22.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.06	-0.00	11	54%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	21	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	13	77%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	57%	0.01	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	2	37%	-0.04	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.05
Tim Duncan	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.23,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19	-0.20	-0.01	-0.01	19	27%	-0.10	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22	-0.18	-0.08	-0.03	12	33%	-0.16	4	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.02	13	60%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	5	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	67%	0.03	3	-0.11	10	60%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	0.02	-0.01	12	40%	0.02	4	-0.13	6	33%	-0.05
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16	-0.17	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	17	45%	-0.11	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.05
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.10	-0.02	12	31%	-0.13	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.5	31.4	18.4	29.6	4.4	37.6	153.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +11.9%

SAS +11.1%

SAS +15.7%

SAS +11.8%

DEN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	17.7	14.4	15.5	94.5	88.6	104.0
season	16.3	14.8		105.8	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.3	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.8	17.2	18.8	18.1	17.7
DEN	13.1	15.5	14.6	14.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	60	58	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	-2	12	16.7	19.6	-2.88	14.3	14.8	-0.49
Bruce Bowen	67	64	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.34	2	6	-4	18.3	16.0	2.34	13.9	15.9	-1.97
Tony Parker	63	62	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	8	-8	17.8	17.4	0.42	14.1	15.3	-1.17
Manu Ginobili	60	60	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	1	6	16.9	19.2	-2.24	14.6	14.2	0.39
Tim Duncan	50	48	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.23	2	6	-4	18.7	16.4	2.35	14.7	14.2	0.49
Brent Barry	52	49	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	4	0	17.6	17.8	-0.24	14.2	14.7	-0.54
Beno Udrih	32	30	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	-3	14	17.3	17.9	-0.57	16.2	13.6	2.61
Rasho Nesterovic	32	32	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	4	0	18.4	17.3	1.12	15.2	14.0	1.12
Nazr Mohammed	39	37	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	8	-8	17.6	17.7	-0.16	14.0	14.7	-0.72

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	52	51	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.03	-2	-6	4	14.5	14.4	0.09	16.8	18.8	-1.95
Nene	19	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-10	12	14.1	14.6	-0.50	20.2	17.0	3.29
Andre Miller	77	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-10	12	14.5	14.4	0.09	17.9	16.2	1.65
Eduardo Najera	15	16	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	4	-16	16.9	13.9	3.00	15.8	18.1	-2.27
Carmelo Anthony	71	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-10	12	13.9	16.8	-2.88	18.1	15.8	2.28
Marcus Camby	71	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-6	4	13.9	16.5	-2.59	17.6	18.2	-0.60
Kenyon Martin	70	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-4	0	14.6	13.7	0.98	17.7	17.6	0.09
Earl Boykins	40	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	1	-10	15.1	13.9	1.30	18.4	17.0	1.37
DerMarr Johnson	25	26	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.00	-17	9	-26	14.4	14.4	-0.00	15.8	18.4	-2.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.21,0.05,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 107, CLE 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.01,0.04,0	92.7%
CLE 105, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.03,0,0,0	92.6%
MIA 97, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.03,0.1,0.15,0	92.4%