NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	6.8 [470]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +14.0%
Charlotte Hornets	90		Comeback	1.7 [331]		LVP	Marvin Williams (CHA): -16.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.01	20	55%	0.20	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.07	0.00	7	71%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11	0.14	-0.02	0.01	14	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	17	39%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Joe Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	7	61%	0.03	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.04	-0.01	30	56%	0.18	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	14	58%	0.12	1	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.03
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Daniels	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.03	5	58%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.00	8	36%	0.01	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	7	0%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	36.0	16.0	28.8	2.6	38.2	148.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.2%

CHA -9.6%

MIA +23.4%

CHA -1.7%

MIA +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	16.6	15.2	14.9	107.8	98.9	105.1
season	15.5	15.1		104.5	105.5
opponent	14.8	15.1		103.6	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	15.0	18.6	19.2	16.6
CHA	15.2	15.0	15.7	15.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	47	49	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.26	17	-10	27	16.1	17.2	-1.12	15.4	15.0	0.47
Hassan Whiteside	52	53	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.14	10	-3	13	15.4	18.3	-2.92	16.2	13.9	2.34
Justise Winslow	33	33	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	-5	17	14.8	17.6	-2.86	15.6	15.0	0.59
Luol Deng	67	67	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	5	-3	17.0	15.3	1.74	15.4	14.8	0.60
Joe Johnson	69	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	5	-3	16.1	18.3	-2.26	14.9	16.5	-1.63
Dwyane Wade	70	70	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.31	-2	9	-11	17.1	14.9	2.12	14.4	18.0	-3.60
Udonis Haslem	28	26	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.14	-2	9	-11	19.1	15.5	3.59	14.0	15.7	-1.67
Gerald Green	14	15	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.06	4	3	1	17.9	16.4	1.57	15.7	15.1	0.60
Josh McRoberts	10	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	8	-9	16.1	16.7	-0.56	13.5	15.5	-1.99
Goran Dragic	60	59	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.10	-7	14	-21	17.3	15.3	2.00	15.9	13.9	2.04

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Daniels	1	2	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.03	2	-9	11	21.0	15.2	5.83	43.5	16.0	27.51
Al Jefferson	56	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.24	3	-10	13	15.8	14.3	1.44	17.2	15.6	1.63
Kemba Walker	75	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-7	7	15.2	15.3	-0.10	17.0	14.6	2.40
Nicolas Batum	29	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	4	-15	15.8	15.0	0.77	14.6	17.5	-2.89
Marvin Williams	71	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.32	2	-9	11	15.0	16.1	-1.18	16.6	16.6	-0.04
Frank Kaminsky	67	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-5	3	15.3	15.0	0.37	16.6	16.5	0.11
Cody Zeller	35	34	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	3	-13	14.3	15.8	-1.44	15.6	17.2	-1.63
Courtney Lee	76	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-5	3	15.0	16.5	-1.56	16.3	18.3	-2.08
Jeremy Lin	45	45	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.03	-17	10	-27	15.5	15.0	0.51	16.5	16.7	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.03,0.1,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 102, DAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.21,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.2%
HOU 98, CLE 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.06,0,0	93.5%
SAS 76, CHH 71	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.18,0	93.4%