NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	76		Excitement	6.4 [485]		MVP	Will Perdue (SAS): +13.5%
Charlotte Hornets	71		Comeback	1.7 [341]		LVP	Glen Rice (CHH): -28.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.04	0.00	6	100%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.08	0.01	19	51%	0.14	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Jaren Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	11	54%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Sean Elliott	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Reggie Geary	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	15	48%	-0.00	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Geiger	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	26	42%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Beck	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Travis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	10	29%	-0.09	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	13	47%	-0.06	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	9	36%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.13	0.00	5	20%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29	-0.29	-0.17	-0.13	-0.01	17	29%	-0.22	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	1.8	25.2	15.7	25.1	1.7	35.1	124.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +87.1%

SAS +4.3%

CHH -35.6%

CHH -8.6%

SAS +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHH	NBA	SAS	CHH	NBA
this game	15.3	18.6	15.6	89.4	83.5	102.5
season	15.9	15.7		100.9	104.0
opponent	15.9	15.9		102.6	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.5	12.5	16.1	18.9	15.3
CHH	14.3	20.2	19.9	21.1	18.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson	68	69	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-2	9	14.8	17.1	-2.28	17.4	23.7	-6.28
Chuck Person	42	43	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.25	9	-4	13	16.7	13.9	2.76	20.2	16.9	3.28
Tim Duncan	76	77	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.29	6	-1	7	14.9	19.0	-4.14	18.7	17.7	0.93
David Robinson	64	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	4	-3	15.6	14.4	1.21	18.4	19.1	-0.67
Avery Johnson	75	74	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.42	-4	9	-13	15.3	15.5	-0.23	18.3	20.7	-2.46
Reggie Geary	19	19	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.04	9	-4	13	17.4	14.7	2.74	20.8	17.9	2.90
Will Perdue	30	28	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	2	1	15.8	15.0	0.73	18.7	18.5	0.19
Sean Elliott	43	42	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	9	-13	13.9	16.7	-2.76	16.9	20.2	-3.28
Vinny Del Negro	8	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	7	-9	14.4	15.4	-1.01	26.4	17.8	8.60

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Williams	13	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-1	-3	23.5	17.7	5.75	14.7	15.4	-0.76
Vlade Divac	29	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-3	1	22.5	16.6	5.96	16.1	14.9	1.28
B.J. Armstrong	34	35	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.31	2	-7	9	19.4	18.0	1.37	15.0	15.5	-0.50
Corey Beck	51	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	2	-9	18.0	19.4	-1.37	15.5	15.0	0.50
Matt Geiger	75	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	18.6	18.7	-0.13	14.9	18.9	-3.95
David Wesley	77	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-3	1	18.4	20.7	-2.39	15.6	12.7	2.94
Anthony Mason	68	66	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	17.8	21.9	-4.12	15.4	14.8	0.58
Glen Rice	78	77	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.31	-6	1	-7	17.3	33.3	-16.02	15.1	17.6	-2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.18,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 89, BOS 84	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.26,0	93.8%
LAL 100, MIN 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.37,0.28,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.15,0	93.5%
MIA 97, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.03,0.1,0.15,0	93.4%