NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	89		Excitement	4.8 [688]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +9.5%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.1 [1066]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -14.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.02	16	58%	0.09	2	-0.06	11	82%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0,-0.01,0	0.05	-0.02	0.03	16	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Forbes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Amir Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	0.01	-0.01	8	12%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12	-0.03	-0.05	0.04	13	53%	0.01	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	14	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	12	75%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.01	17	65%	0.19	5	-0.10	12	83%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	7	79%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	80%	0.03	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	13	37%	-0.04	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	34.2	15.8	25.1	2.4	39.4	142.9
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +15.8%

MIA +19.2%

TOR -3.5%

MIA +17.9%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	17.5	13.7	15.6	96.7	102.2	102.8
season	16.5	15.5		98.9	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		98.8	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.0	19.3	16.5	18.2	17.5
MIA	14.0	13.5	13.5	13.9	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leandro Barbosa	21	24	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.11	5	-11	16	19.0	17.0	1.92	13.0	13.9	-0.93
Rasual Butler	7	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-6	6	14.0	17.8	-3.75	12.0	13.8	-1.83
Amir Johnson	33	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.24	7	-13	20	18.7	16.8	1.96	13.4	13.9	-0.44
Linas Kleiza	44	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.26	6	-12	18	18.7	16.3	2.46	13.7	13.7	-0.04
James Johnson	38	37	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-9	12	15.2	19.1	-3.85	14.2	13.3	0.88
Jamaal Magloire	16	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.12	-2	-4	2	18.6	17.2	1.33	14.7	13.5	1.21
Gary Forbes	11	11	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-1	-4	16.5	17.6	-1.05	13.3	13.7	-0.47
Aaron Gray	35	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	5	-16	16.3	18.2	-1.82	14.0	13.5	0.53
Ed Davis	55	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.10	-9	3	-12	19.1	15.0	4.08	13.2	14.4	-1.14
Jose Calderon	54	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	7	-20	16.0	19.6	-3.64	13.5	14.0	-0.51
Jerryd Bayless	73	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-2	-2	18.0	15.3	2.78	14.0	12.5	1.53
DeMar DeRozan	73	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	1	-8	16.9	19.5	-2.53	13.8	13.1	0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	65	66	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-10	26	13.1	15.1	-2.08	17.2	18.2	-1.06
LeBron James	77	75	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.26	11	-5	16	13.4	14.9	-1.51	16.8	20.5	-3.68
Chris Bosh	72	74	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.24	7	-1	8	13.4	14.8	-1.45	17.4	17.7	-0.25
Joel Anthony	41	44	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	-10	26	14.2	13.3	0.86	16.1	18.7	-2.55
Mario Chalmers	53	56	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	-4	14	14.1	13.2	0.90	16.2	19.4	-3.25
Udonis Haslem	49	48	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.27	-6	12	-18	13.8	13.6	0.23	17.6	17.3	0.29
Norris Cole	31	27	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	11	-16	14.0	13.5	0.52	21.1	15.9	5.21
Mike Miller	42	39	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.34	-11	17	-28	13.0	14.2	-1.21	19.5	16.0	3.55
Shane Battier	35	31	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.21	-9	15	-24	15.3	12.7	2.56	18.1	17.2	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.86,0.78,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 99, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	94.0%
IND 109, DET 119	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	93.9%
SAC 103, LAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.67,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.91,0.93,0.79,0.96,1,1	93.9%