NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	7.5 [260]		MVP	Tiago Splitter (SAS): +33.8%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	2.5 [484]		LVP	Kawhi Leonard (SAS): -16.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.18	0.15	-0.01	13	81%	0.39	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.03
Gary Neal	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.21	0.09	0.12	0.00	7	79%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	12	62%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Cory Joseph	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	27%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	10	40%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.1	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	11	29%	-0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	23	47%	-0.01	4	-0.14	5	80%	-0.01
Kawhi Leonard	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	13	31%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.21	0.21	0.05	0.16	0.00	10	64%	0.23	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.17	0.17	0.00	0.14	-0.03	11	58%	0.22	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.08	-0.01	21	54%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.03
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	7	86%	0.19	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.08	-0.02	6	75%	0.19	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	8	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.0	26.3	15.6	24.5	1.7	33.5	128.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +67.7%

HOU +5.0%

SAS -30.2%

HOU +6.1%

HOU +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	16.0	14.9	15.6	108.5	114.1	102.8
season	15.3	15.4		109.1	103.5
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.2	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	15.3	17.4	14.8	16.0
HOU	14.7	14.1	13.9	17.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	40	40	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.07	7	-10	17	15.8	16.1	-0.32	14.6	15.2	-0.52
Tiago Splitter	63	63	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.28	9	-12	21	14.5	19.1	-4.60	15.1	14.7	0.37
Cory Joseph	24	26	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.10	1	-4	5	18.7	15.1	3.62	14.7	15.0	-0.30
Richard Jefferson	49	49	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-2	1	16.2	15.8	0.32	14.9	15.0	-0.19
Gary Neal	49	47	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-3	3	15.3	16.8	-1.47	15.6	14.2	1.37
Tony Parker	70	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.31	-4	1	-5	15.1	18.7	-3.62	15.0	14.7	0.30
Matt Bonner	67	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	3	-9	16.0	16.1	-0.19	14.6	15.8	-1.24
DeJuan Blair	35	33	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.12	-12	9	-21	18.6	14.5	4.13	14.4	15.2	-0.81
Kawhi Leonard	73	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.30	-9	6	-15	16.6	14.0	2.65	15.2	13.9	1.26

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	62	64	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.38	12	-9	21	15.2	14.4	0.76	16.7	14.6	2.12
Kyle Lowry	76	78	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.41	6	-3	9	15.0	14.7	0.31	15.8	17.0	-1.19
Courtney Lee	49	48	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	1	1	15.5	14.3	1.25	15.6	16.4	-0.75
Goran Dragic	45	45	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.46	-3	6	-9	16.1	13.8	2.32	15.2	16.8	-1.60
Patrick Patterson	53	52	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.41	-4	7	-11	16.3	13.1	3.20	15.8	16.3	-0.50
Kevin Martin	66	69	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.10	4	-1	5	13.8	17.8	-4.04	16.2	15.4	0.89
Luis Scola	49	53	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	-2	7	14.2	15.8	-1.54	17.3	14.3	2.96
Chandler Parsons	43	45	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	4	-5	13.8	15.9	-2.12	16.3	15.8	0.53
Jordan Hill	17	16	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.06	-6	9	-15	14.1	15.1	-1.02	12.4	16.8	-4.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.57,0.48,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.33,0.46,0.59,0.65,0.84,0.81,0.93,0.89,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 92, CHA 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.3%
LAL 111, HOU 126	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.55,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.42,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.86,1,1,1,1	92.2%
IND 94, NJN 105	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.97,1,1	92.2%