NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	5.6 [549]		MVP	Al Harrington (DEN): +19.6%
Denver Nuggets	117		Comeback	1.4 [387]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -12.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	5	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
LeBron James	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.15	-0.01	0.07	20	69%	0.17	4	-0.09	11	55%	-0.06
Chris Bosh	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	15	49%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickell Gladness	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.03	10	52%	0.03	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Shane Battier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terrel Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	14	43%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.05	0.05	7	62%	-0.02	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.10	-0.02	9	83%	0.23	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.03	0.01	-0.10	12	52%	0.10	4	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	11	83%	0.20	5	-0.13	7	86%	0.02
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.00	0.06	9	75%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	10	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	11	55%	0.05	3	-0.05	9	56%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.03	5	54%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	3.6	28.8	18.6	30.4	3.6	32.4	148.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +32.3%

DEN +2.4%

MIA -1.6%

DEN +18.9%

MIA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	15.6	15.6	108.3	120.6	102.8
season	15.5	14.5		105.6	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.8		104.5	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	13.0	14.2	14.7	14.3
DEN	14.1	15.8	14.6	18.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickell Gladness	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-15	17	14.0	14.3	-0.29	19.0	15.4	3.59
James Jones	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-15	17	14.3	14.3	0.05	19.0	15.4	3.59
Dexter Pittman	29	31	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.09	3	-16	19	14.2	14.3	-0.16	14.8	15.9	-1.06
Terrel Harris	12	11	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-15	17	12.6	14.5	-1.94	14.8	15.7	-0.83
Norris Cole	41	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-15	17	13.9	14.6	-0.70	17.6	14.1	3.56
Joel Anthony	16	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	-5	-3	16.2	13.9	2.29	14.0	15.9	-1.86
Dwyane Wade	56	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	-4	-5	14.7	13.6	1.13	15.7	15.3	0.39
Shane Battier	46	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-8	3	14.0	14.5	-0.50	16.7	14.5	2.17
Udonis Haslem	55	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	-5	-3	14.2	14.3	-0.11	15.8	15.2	0.64
Mario Chalmers	63	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	0	-13	14.2	14.4	-0.17	14.7	17.4	-2.64
LeBron James	76	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.00	-16	3	-19	14.4	13.9	0.48	14.7	19.0	-4.34
Chris Bosh	79	79	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.00	-17	4	-21	14.2	14.6	-0.37	15.4	16.1	-0.61

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	36	37	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	2	9	16.3	15.1	1.15	14.3	14.3	0.07
Nene	81	81	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	0	13	16.1	12.6	3.51	14.4	13.5	0.97
Rudy Fernandez	58	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.04	15	-2	17	16.6	14.0	2.65	13.6	15.3	-1.63
Timofey Mozgov	52	52	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	-3	19	13.7	17.8	-4.10	14.7	13.8	0.85
Ty Lawson	70	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.12	16	-3	19	14.6	18.1	-3.54	14.6	13.3	1.34
Danilo Gallinari	71	70	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.01	11	2	9	14.8	17.7	-2.92	14.5	13.7	0.86
Corey Brewer	24	23	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	14	-15	17.9	14.8	3.14	12.8	14.8	-1.97
Arron Afflalo	41	41	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.07	3	10	-7	13.8	16.8	-3.03	15.8	13.1	2.70
Kosta Koufos	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	17	-21	15.5	15.6	-0.06	4.0	14.4	-10.39
Julyan Stone	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	17	-21	15.5	15.6	-0.06	4.0	14.4	-10.39
Andre Miller	53	52	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.18	-7	20	-27	17.4	13.3	4.10	13.4	15.3	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.65,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 108, ORL 121	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.0%
PHX 98, UTA 109	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.42,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.9%
PHI 72, HOU 80	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.58,0.74,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%