NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	111		Excitement	5.7 [533]		MVP	Luke Ridnour (MIN): +18.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Comeback	1.0 [868]		LVP	Ricky Rubio (MIN): -10.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.05	-0.03	17	55%	0.16	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.08	0.02	6	108%	0.22	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	0.00	0.05	22	65%	0.17	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.03	0.03	10	63%	0.12	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	67%	0.07	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
John Lucas III	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Boozer	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	10	32%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.03	0.03	11	88%	0.22	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.04	0.03	10	67%	0.15	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	0.06	18	47%	-0.05	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	7	26%	-0.04	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	11	54%	0.04	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	30.6	15.4	28.3	2.0	31.2	132.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +46.1%

MIN -3.7%

CHI +26.8%

MIN -14.6%

MIN -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIN	NBA	CHI	MIN	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	15.6	114.4	105.3	102.8
season	16.0	15.3		104.7	102.6
opponent	15.1	15.9		104.7	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.5	16.9	13.8	15.7	15.0
MIN	18.3	12.4	13.9	15.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	37	38	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.10	14	-3	17	13.8	15.7	-1.91	15.0	15.0	-0.02
Omer Asik	37	36	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.14	11	0	11	15.1	14.9	0.19	14.9	15.1	-0.20
Ronnie Brewer	75	70	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	-4	19	14.6	16.2	-1.60	14.8	15.6	-0.80
Luol Deng	86	83	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	3	5	15.2	13.5	1.63	15.2	13.6	1.63
Derrick Rose	84	82	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	5	1	15.0	15.0	-0.01	15.2	13.6	1.62
Kyle Korver	46	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	5	1	15.4	14.6	0.76	14.8	15.2	-0.40
John Lucas III	15	16	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	6	-1	15.4	14.9	0.49	13.4	15.3	-1.89
Joakim Noah	58	58	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	14	-17	15.2	14.7	0.45	15.1	14.8	0.33
Carlos Boozer	47	44	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	18	-25	15.3	14.7	0.64	15.3	14.8	0.49

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	71	72	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.24	6	-17	23	14.0	18.0	-4.06	15.7	13.1	2.57
Anthony Randolph	59	63	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.25	6	-17	23	13.1	18.2	-5.08	15.4	14.2	1.25
Luke Ridnour	63	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-13	15	15.6	13.8	1.81	15.7	13.6	2.07
Ricky Rubio	72	75	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-14	17	13.5	19.7	-6.18	15.5	13.2	2.28
Darko Milicic	15	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.14	-12	1	-13	20.3	14.0	6.24	12.8	15.4	-2.59
Wayne Ellington	15	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.14	-12	1	-13	20.3	14.0	6.24	12.8	15.4	-2.59
Wesley Johnson	18	18	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.16	-15	4	-19	19.4	14.0	5.40	12.6	15.5	-2.99
Kevin Love	76	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	-5	-1	15.4	13.5	1.86	15.5	12.8	2.67
Jose Juan Barea	40	38	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.02	-15	4	-19	14.8	15.2	-0.41	13.7	15.8	-2.15
Derrick Williams	46	45	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.14	-12	1	-13	15.0	15.0	0.02	14.1	15.7	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.14,0.07,0.02,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 114, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.2,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.17,0.16,0.07,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
GSW 113, HOU 106	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.05,0.01,0.01,0	93.2%
DET 80, TOR 72	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.37,0.31,0.16,0.09,0.01,0.05,0.01,0,0	93.2%