NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	103		Excitement	5.9 [499]		MVP	James Harden (OKC): +22.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	93		Comeback	1.8 [285]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -19.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.07	-0.03	8	67%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.00	6	53%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	19	60%	0.14	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.02
Marcus Camby	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	70%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Raymond Felton	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	46%	0.08	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Craig Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	12	59%	0.05	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.02
Gerald Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	14	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.07	-0.05	13	72%	0.30	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	58%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lazar Hayward	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.08	0.06	18	51%	-0.05	3	-0.09	7	71%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.17	-0.06	-0.03	26	34%	-0.11	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.5	26.5	15.7	27.1	2.5	37.6	140.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +35.9%

POR +0.4%

POR +10.3%

POR +2.6%

POR +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	OKC	NBA	POR	OKC	NBA
this game	16.3	15.1	15.6	113.2	100.0	102.8
season	15.7	14.7		104.1	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.4		101.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.5	16.0	14.5	18.0	16.3
OKC	14.2	16.8	17.5	12.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	80	82	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	-1	12	16.3	15.6	0.71	14.7	17.4	-2.62
Raymond Felton	69	71	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.20	10	0	10	16.1	16.9	-0.85	14.8	15.9	-1.06
Gerald Wallace	63	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-1	12	16.2	16.4	-0.24	14.9	15.4	-0.47
Wesley Matthews	75	74	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	3	4	16.2	16.4	-0.21	15.3	14.1	1.26
Nicolas Batum	47	48	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	11	-12	17.3	15.2	2.05	13.9	16.3	-2.35
Marcus Camby	34	34	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	5	0	15.5	16.7	-1.22	16.7	14.1	2.56
Jamal Crawford	39	41	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.09	7	3	4	16.3	16.2	0.12	15.0	15.1	-0.05
Kurt Thomas	27	29	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	9	-8	15.3	16.7	-1.38	15.6	14.8	0.82
Craig Smith	21	22	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	11	-12	17.1	16.0	1.08	15.9	14.8	1.06

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	29	25	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-13	16	14.8	15.2	-0.38	15.6	16.5	-0.97
Eric Maynor	18	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-9	8	17.3	14.5	2.76	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Serge Ibaka	32	32	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.09	-5	-5	0	16.7	14.2	2.54	16.5	16.1	0.41
Lazar Hayward	3	3	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-7	4	10.0	15.2	-5.22	18.3	16.2	2.14
Nick Collison	46	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-7	4	15.3	14.8	0.45	15.9	16.6	-0.77
Daequan Cook	47	45	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-5	0	13.9	16.2	-2.30	16.5	16.1	0.40
Kendrick Perkins	58	59	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-3	-4	15.1	14.9	0.18	16.3	16.2	0.17
Russell Westbrook	75	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-1	-8	14.5	17.3	-2.76	16.5	14.9	1.61
James Harden	76	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	-1	-8	15.3	13.9	1.36	16.4	15.7	0.65
Kevin Durant	81	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.19	-11	1	-12	14.9	15.9	-0.99	16.3	16.2	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, OKC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.01,0,0	94.8%
CLE 93, ATL 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.1%
POR 125, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.14,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%