NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	5.9 [659]		MVP	Drew Gooden (SAS): +15.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	89		Comeback	2.1 [750]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -18.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.06	-0.01	14	59%	0.16	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	20	54%	0.17	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
Kurt Thomas	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	14	46%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	5	82%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.02	0.03	15	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.02
George Hill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DJ White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.01	16	56%	0.14	2	-0.06	11	82%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	8	81%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.05	0.00	13	62%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	0.02	10	38%	-0.08	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	3.7	29.3	15.7	24.2	2.5	28.5	128.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +11.3%

SAS +16.2%

SAS +20.0%

SAS +3.2%

OKC -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	OKC	NBA	SAS	OKC	NBA
this game	16.9	15.3	15.5	111.2	98.9	106.4
season	16.4	14.9		106.6	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.6	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.8	16.0	17.9	19.1	16.9
OKC	14.6	17.4	13.4	15.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	62	62	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-1	12	16.5	17.8	-1.25	15.6	14.6	0.97
Bruce Bowen	42	46	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.08	13	-3	16	16.7	17.1	-0.46	16.0	14.6	1.39
Tony Parker	68	71	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	2	6	15.9	20.1	-4.23	14.9	16.7	-1.78
Drew Gooden	53	55	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.06	11	-1	12	17.1	16.7	0.36	14.9	15.8	-0.90
Roger Mason Jr.	54	51	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	-3	16	17.2	16.5	0.70	16.0	14.4	1.62
Ime Udoka	50	51	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	11	-12	17.5	16.2	1.25	14.3	16.6	-2.32
Michael Finley	53	51	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.17	-3	13	-16	17.6	15.9	1.67	15.5	15.0	0.49
Kurt Thomas	26	27	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	8	-6	18.7	16.2	2.52	16.1	14.9	1.19
Matt Bonner	35	35	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	12	-14	15.8	17.6	-1.83	14.9	15.5	-0.64
George Hill	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	21.0	16.8	4.18	7.0	15.4	-8.37

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	56	57	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-12	14	13.8	17.8	-4.00	16.6	17.5	-0.97
Kyle Weaver	30	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-9	8	16.7	14.6	2.08	17.9	16.5	1.38
Nick Collison	41	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.12	-4	-6	2	15.5	15.1	0.48	17.8	16.2	1.62
Jeff Green	80	80	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.18	-2	-8	6	14.8	18.8	-3.96	16.5	20.8	-4.30
Nenad Krstic	49	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	15.1	15.5	-0.48	16.2	17.8	-1.62
Russell Westbrook	60	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-1	-8	14.6	16.7	-2.08	16.5	17.9	-1.38
DJ White	27	25	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	0	-10	18.1	14.1	4.05	18.0	16.5	1.57
Shaun Livingston	29	28	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	0	-10	18.0	14.0	4.07	18.6	16.1	2.53
Kevin Durant	78	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	0	-10	14.8	18.3	-3.53	16.6	18.7	-2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 103, OKC 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
CHI 103, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.04,0	94.1%
POR 125, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.14,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%