NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	86		Excitement	5.2 [616]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +19.6%
Dallas Mavericks	99		Comeback	2.6 [613]		LVP	James Johnson (TOR): -11.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0.20	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.04	-0.03	18	68%	0.29	3	-0.09	8	75%	0.02
Ed Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	12	39%	-0.05	1	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.04	0.03	15	61%	0.04	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
James Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.05	0.02	6	83%	0.20	1	-0.02	11	64%	-0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.01	7	59%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Shawn Marion	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.00	8	63%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.02	10	65%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	16	49%	0.06	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominique Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	30%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.3	28.5	16.4	28.2	2.4	29.7	135.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +12.1%

DAL +19.4%

DAL +0.6%

DAL +18.4%

TOR -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DAL	NBA	TOR	DAL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.9	15.6	92.5	106.5	102.8
season	16.5	15.5		98.9	101.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		100.9	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.3	14.3	19.1	14.8	16.1
DAL	14.3	15.1	14.3	15.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Forbes	7	8	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-17	21	16.6	16.0	0.56	18.9	14.5	4.33
Amir Johnson	52	51	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.13	5	-18	23	16.0	16.1	-0.03	16.9	12.5	4.45
Jose Calderon	60	60	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-15	17	16.0	16.2	-0.15	17.0	11.1	5.93
Jerryd Bayless	16	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-12	11	15.7	16.1	-0.37	11.1	15.7	-4.58
DeMar DeRozan	65	65	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-10	7	15.9	16.4	-0.43	16.6	10.9	5.70
Andrea Bargnani	80	79	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-9	5	15.9	17.1	-1.19	15.8	9.9	5.87
Rasual Butler	22	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	-5	-3	16.1	16.0	0.11	15.6	14.7	0.92
Jamaal Magloire	12	12	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	-5	-3	18.2	15.7	2.52	8.8	15.8	-6.98
Leandro Barbosa	64	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-5	-3	15.7	16.9	-1.22	13.9	17.0	-3.03
James Johnson	31	31	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.02	-14	1	-15	16.4	15.9	0.45	11.6	16.6	-4.95
Anthony Carter	17	17	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	1	-15	16.5	15.9	0.58	11.1	15.8	-4.72
Ed Davis	39	40	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.15	-16	3	-19	16.2	15.9	0.26	12.5	16.7	-4.15

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	40	41	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.22	18	-5	23	13.1	16.3	-3.23	16.0	16.1	-0.10
Ian Mahinmi	59	60	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.10	21	-8	29	13.3	17.7	-4.35	15.5	17.0	-1.47
Jason Terry	62	63	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.06	19	-6	25	14.0	16.8	-2.84	15.8	16.5	-0.71
Lamar Odom	24	24	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	2	9	11.6	16.1	-4.49	17.9	15.4	2.45
Rodrigue Beaubois	37	37	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	1	11	14.5	15.2	-0.62	13.6	17.6	-3.99
Dirk Nowitzki	57	57	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	8	-3	16.1	13.0	3.08	16.2	15.8	0.40
Jason Kidd	56	56	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	12	-11	15.2	14.5	0.62	17.6	13.6	3.99
Brian Cardinal	8	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	10	-7	15.5	14.9	0.64	11.0	16.5	-5.53
Dominique Jones	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	12.5	15.0	-2.47	8.0	16.1	-8.14
Delonte West	29	29	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	19	-25	17.1	13.9	3.18	16.8	15.7	1.12
Brendan Haywood	34	33	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.02	-8	21	-29	17.7	13.3	4.35	17.0	15.5	1.47
Shawn Marion	57	56	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.03	-11	24	-35	16.3	12.7	3.67	15.9	16.3	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.69,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.55,0.45,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 89, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.65,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.88,0.96,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
ORL 81, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.73,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%
GSW 79, MEM 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.2%