NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	89		Excitement	5.8 [694]		MVP	Marreese Speights (ORL): +20.2%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	2.2 [349]		LVP	Langston Galloway (DET): -12.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ish Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	18	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	7	93%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	17	55%	0.05	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Henry Ellenson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Buycks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	17%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Moreland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Andre Drummond	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	16	47%	0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Luke Kennard	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	8	50%	0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	9	17%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.12,0.15,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.05	0.13	-0.02	13	53%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	12	63%	0.14	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	75%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	13	61%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.14	0.01	-0.07	13	26%	-0.01	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	12	58%	0.05	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.3	27.5	14.7	24.0	1.8	28.3	125.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +46.5%

ORL +12.0%

ORL +0.3%

DET -8.6%

DET -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	15.0	14.0	14.7	89.0	103.0	107.5
season	14.9	14.6		106.4	104.2
opponent	14.5	14.7		109.1	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.4	13.8	16.0	15.8	15.0
ORL	13.8	13.9	13.4	14.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	70	69	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.07	0	-13	13	14.0	17.3	-3.34	14.0	14.0	-0.03
Henry Ellenson	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-15	17	11.0	15.0	-4.04	20.0	13.8	6.21
Dwight Buycks	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-17	21	13.0	15.0	-2.04	20.0	13.7	6.27
Tobias Harris	75	74	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-12	11	14.0	17.8	-3.84	14.4	12.7	1.74
Reggie Bullock	77	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	-5	-3	14.3	17.0	-2.71	13.7	14.8	-1.08
Eric Moreland	21	21	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	-6	-1	18.2	14.1	4.09	11.4	14.7	-3.30
Andre Drummond	79	78	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.07	-6	-7	1	14.1	18.2	-4.09	14.7	11.4	3.30
Stanley Johnson	51	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-10	7	16.0	13.9	2.12	13.5	14.4	-0.89
Anthony Tolliver	50	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	-2	-9	15.4	14.5	0.92	13.4	14.5	-1.05
Langston Galloway	30	30	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	0	-13	17.3	14.0	3.34	14.0	14.0	0.03
Luke Kennard	41	41	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.04	-22	9	-31	16.4	13.9	2.47	13.8	14.1	-0.34

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marreese Speights	30	31	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	-1	15	13.2	14.3	-1.12	17.0	14.0	2.96
Mario Hezonja	35	37	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	5	3	13.6	14.2	-0.54	16.7	14.0	2.72
D.J. Augustin	26	28	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.12	12	1	11	12.5	14.5	-2.01	17.3	14.0	3.28
Arron Afflalo	27	28	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	3	7	14.2	13.9	0.28	16.6	14.3	2.29
Elfrid Payton	80	81	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	8	-3	14.7	11.1	3.62	14.3	17.8	-3.56
Jonathon Simmons	77	76	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	9	-5	14.2	13.1	1.08	14.4	16.6	-2.19
Wes Iwundu	18	17	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	10	-7	13.0	14.2	-1.20	16.2	14.7	1.47
Evan Fournier	69	70	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	8	-3	13.6	14.8	-1.13	14.4	16.2	-1.82
Aaron Gordon	64	63	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.13	5	8	-3	14.2	13.6	0.54	14.0	16.7	-2.72
Bismack Biyombo	69	69	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	14	-15	14.3	13.2	1.12	14.0	17.0	-2.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.65,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.88,0.96,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.85,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.6%
ATL 95, DET 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.57,0.46,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
TOR 86, DAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.69,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.55,0.45,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%