NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	86		Excitement	7.1 [408]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): +10.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	3.3 [626]		LVP	Jerryd Bayless (TOR): -24.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Solomon Alabi	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	14	45%	0.12	4	-0.13	10	90%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	10	55%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	11	56%	0.05	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.02
Julian Wright	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Joey Dorsey	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	0.01	-0.01	12	33%	-0.03	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Alexis Ajinca	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	9	39%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.23,-0.27,-0.31,-0.31,-0.24,-0.24	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	20	43%	0.04	6	-0.28	6	67%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.01	16	55%	0.15	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Drew Gooden	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.08	0.02	14	54%	0.13	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	1	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.05	0.02	14	69%	0.17	4	-0.16	7	71%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	43%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	3	0%	-0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	30.1	15.6	24.3	3.3	32.3	133.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +20.4%

MIL +9.7%

TOR -8.5%

MIL +30.2%

TOR -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.4	15.5	87.8	98.9	105.7
season	15.1	16.2		104.7	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.5		100.9	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.5	15.8	16.7	14.3	15.6
MIL	14.5	13.0	15.3	15.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Solomon Alabi	13	13	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-8	9	14.2	15.8	-1.61	15.2	14.3	0.85
Alexis Ajinca	33	32	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.09	3	-10	13	13.2	16.7	-3.53	17.0	13.1	3.90
Julian Wright	50	50	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-6	5	16.1	15.0	1.08	13.7	15.3	-1.59
DeMar DeRozan	81	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.38	-1	-6	5	14.9	18.6	-3.75	14.8	12.7	2.10
Joey Dorsey	66	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.09	-11	4	-15	17.1	12.3	4.86	13.5	16.3	-2.83
Jerryd Bayless	87	84	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.24	-9	2	-11	15.7	14.1	1.64	14.1	17.0	-2.88
James Johnson	77	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.27	-10	3	-13	15.5	15.6	-0.03	14.7	13.5	1.15
Ed Davis	83	79	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.44	-7	0	-7	15.6	15.5	0.10	14.2	15.7	-1.48

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	71	74	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.38	9	-2	11	13.9	16.2	-2.31	15.6	15.2	0.40
Drew Gooden	70	75	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-3	13	14.0	15.5	-1.50	16.3	13.2	3.05
Brandon Jennings	78	80	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-3	13	14.3	15.0	-0.69	15.6	15.5	0.06
Ersan Ilyasova	45	46	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	2	3	15.0	13.9	1.14	13.7	17.2	-3.46
Keyon Dooling	25	29	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	4	-1	15.5	14.0	1.44	14.2	16.1	-1.96
Carlos Delfino	52	53	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	2	3	13.4	15.7	-2.24	16.8	14.1	2.70
Corey Maggette	13	13	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	3	1	10.9	15.0	-4.06	16.4	15.4	0.96
Luc Mbah a Moute	35	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.10	3	4	-1	14.6	14.3	0.23	17.1	14.6	2.54
Chris Douglas-Roberts	16	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	6	-5	14.8	14.3	0.47	15.7	15.5	0.16
Earl Boykins	12	13	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	8	-9	15.2	14.3	0.85	15.8	15.5	0.25
Larry Sanders	25	25	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.00	-8	15	-23	16.0	13.8	2.20	14.0	16.1	-2.08
Michael Redd	28	29	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.07	-6	13	-19	16.6	13.5	3.06	14.2	16.1	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.83,0.86,0.99,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 98, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.47,0.54,0.73,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.0%
ATL 85, CHH 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.72,0.86,0.97,0.97,1,1	92.6%
BOS 96, ATL 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.39,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.6,0.77,0.86,0.96,1,1,1	92.5%