NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	96		Excitement	6.3 [572]		MVP	Tyronn Lue (ATL): +28.3%
Atlanta Hawks	104		Comeback	3.8 [404]		LVP	Anthony Johnson (ATL): -11.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0.21	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.20	-0.01	-0.01	22	66%	0.21	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	11	70%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Leon Powe	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.02	14	46%	0.08	1	-0.06	13	85%	0.05
Kevinn Pinkney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	5	70%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Allan Ray	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	9	44%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	10	35%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	1	100%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.14	0.18	0.04	16	72%	0.31	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.14	0.02	6	92%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	-0.00	14	69%	0.15	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.02	14	60%	0.14	4	-0.07	7	71%	-0.03
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	7	74%	0.12	5	-0.16	5	80%	0.02
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	6	36%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.6	1.8	30.2	15.8	24.0	2.7	30.2	125.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +47.4%

ATL +4.9%

ATL +12.9%

BOS -12.3%

BOS -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	16.8	15.4	110.3	118.2	104.5
season	15.5	16.1		101.7	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.3		106.1	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.9	15.6	16.7	16.3	16.1
ATL	15.4	17.8	16.0	18.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	65	64	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.01	6	-14	20	15.9	16.6	-0.70	16.8	16.8	0.01
Ryan Gomes	49	47	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.07	-1	-7	6	17.0	14.9	2.07	15.7	18.0	-2.30
Leon Powe	53	53	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.31	2	-10	12	15.9	16.5	-0.63	18.1	14.8	3.36
Kendrick Perkins	29	30	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	-12	4	-16	16.7	15.8	0.81	15.1	17.7	-2.57
Kevinn Pinkney	43	46	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.34	-5	-3	-2	15.0	17.2	-2.16	17.5	16.1	1.39
Allan Ray	69	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.28	-7	-1	-6	16.3	15.5	0.78	16.5	17.9	-1.42
Sebastian Telfair	47	47	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	1	-10	15.7	16.6	-0.94	17.4	16.1	1.22
Gerald Green	80	82	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.22	-14	6	-20	16.4	13.1	3.23	16.7	18.0	-1.29

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	70	69	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-7	22	16.6	17.6	-1.03	16.5	14.5	2.04
Marvin Williams	82	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.24	11	-3	14	16.7	18.2	-1.47	16.3	12.8	3.52
Royal Ivey	41	40	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	4	0	16.6	16.9	-0.30	15.4	16.7	-1.37
Tyronn Lue	73	71	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	3	2	17.2	14.9	2.24	16.3	15.5	0.75
Shelden Williams	47	47	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	6	-4	17.6	15.9	1.76	15.8	16.5	-0.67
Solomon Jones	37	35	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.01	7	1	6	15.6	17.6	-1.98	16.6	15.8	0.86
Anthony Johnson	69	69	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.12	2	6	-4	16.4	18.3	-1.94	16.1	16.3	-0.21
Slava Medvedenko	21	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	14	-20	18.4	16.3	2.14	14.9	16.5	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.39,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.6,0.77,0.86,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, SAS 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.38,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.47,0.58,0.83,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.96,1	92.8%
HOU 98, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.47,0.54,0.73,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.7%
TOR 86, MIL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.83,0.86,0.99,0.97,0.96,1	92.5%