NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	3.9 [1083]		MVP	Martell Webster (MIN): +17.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Comeback	1.3 [1180]		LVP	Wesley Johnson (MIN): -12.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.01	-0.03	20	57%	0.14	3	-0.04	7	71%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	0.02	0.06	21	68%	0.15	4	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
James Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	117%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	17	60%	0.09	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Eddie House	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	7	44%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.01	0.01	12	85%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lazar Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.05	12	53%	-0.03	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	11	59%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	11	58%	0.05	6	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	0.04	6	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	4	30%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	9	29%	-0.06	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.8	30.2	14.7	29.1	2.5	28.2	134.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +24.8%

MIA +11.6%

MIA +7.6%

MIA +2.4%

MIA +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.5	13.7	15.5	111.0	94.8	105.7
season	16.0	14.3		109.0	102.7
opponent	15.1	15.6		109.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	16.2	13.3	17.4	15.5
MIN	14.4	12.6	13.3	14.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	38	37	0.67	-0.17	0.85	-0.32	34	-15	49	12.8	17.2	-4.48	14.7	13.0	1.71
Dwyane Wade	74	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.17	24	-5	29	14.4	18.7	-4.26	13.7	13.6	0.07
Mike Bibby	66	63	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.00	16	3	13	14.7	17.3	-2.61	13.2	14.6	-1.41
LeBron James	90	87	0.45	0.06	0.39	0.01	15	4	11	15.6	14.7	0.93	13.8	12.4	1.42
Chris Bosh	78	75	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.18	21	-2	23	15.0	17.3	-2.28	13.9	12.8	1.10
Joel Anthony	31	30	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	18	-17	16.6	15.0	1.60	12.8	14.1	-1.26
Eddie House	39	39	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	17	-15	17.2	14.5	2.69	14.1	13.4	0.64
Juwan Howard	23	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.20	-6	25	-31	18.9	14.5	4.32	14.0	13.6	0.38
Dexter Pittman	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	16.6	15.5	1.12	10.4	13.8	-3.45
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	2	1	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	22	-25	20.0	15.4	4.55	11.0	13.7	-2.70
James Jones	54	54	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.14	-8	27	-35	17.2	13.6	3.54	13.4	14.1	-0.72

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	41	42	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.37	18	-37	55	13.2	14.0	-0.86	16.9	14.6	2.31
Wayne Ellington	51	53	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.28	14	-33	47	13.3	14.1	-0.75	17.1	13.8	3.31
Lazar Hayward	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-16	13	13.2	13.7	-0.54	16.2	15.5	0.67
Martell Webster	55	55	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-18	17	13.5	13.9	-0.41	17.3	13.3	4.01
Jonny Flynn	25	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-15	11	14.4	13.4	0.98	17.5	14.9	2.52
Anthony Randolph	30	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.23	-12	-7	-5	13.1	13.9	-0.87	16.0	15.3	0.70
Darko Milicic	18	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	-9	-1	15.7	13.2	2.45	14.9	15.7	-0.74
Nikola Pekovic	9	8	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	-8	-3	14.9	13.5	1.34	8.6	16.1	-7.52
Luke Ridnour	72	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	-4	-11	13.4	14.4	-0.98	14.9	17.5	-2.52
Kevin Love	74	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	-2	-15	13.3	14.8	-1.52	14.9	17.7	-2.75
Wesley Johnson	46	48	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.15	-24	5	-29	13.7	13.7	0.01	13.7	17.2	-3.48
Michael Beasley	58	61	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.26	-30	11	-41	14.5	12.4	2.11	14.6	16.9	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 94, GSW 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
NJN 98, CLE 74	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
UTA 103, LAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	95.1%