NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	119		Excitement	7.3 [374]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +19.4%
Miami Heat	125		Comeback	3.7 [617]		LVP	Chase Budinger (HOU): -9.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.03	-0.03	18	57%	0.20	2	-0.09	8	100%	0.08
Kevin Martin	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	19	58%	0.16	2	-0.07	12	92%	0.04
Luis Scola	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.12	0.01	0.06	23	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Hill	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Goran Dragic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Courtney Lee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	0.04	-0.11	0.02	15	53%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.06	0.02	21	65%	0.25	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.05	-0.00	7	100%	0.22	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.05	0.05	21	60%	0.19	1	-0.04	10	90%	0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.05	-0.04	25	50%	0.14	3	-0.06	10	90%	0.02
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	3	56%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.7	33.3	15.7	24.2	2.4	36.5	138.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.4%

MIA +1.9%

MIA +14.5%

MIA +5.5%

HOU -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	14.9	15.5	122.7	126.3	105.7
season	15.2	16.0		109.5	109.0
opponent	15.6	14.9		102.3	107.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.1	14.7	13.6	14.5	14.4
MIA	15.5	12.5	15.2	16.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hill	25	25	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-6	6	14.9	14.3	0.59	12.8	15.7	-2.92
Goran Dragic	19	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-6	6	15.8	14.1	1.67	11.9	15.6	-3.73
Kevin Martin	73	76	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.25	5	-11	16	13.8	16.5	-2.73	15.4	13.6	1.79
Luis Scola	79	82	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.18	-2	-4	2	13.9	16.7	-2.80	15.3	13.1	2.20
Chase Budinger	74	77	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.22	-1	-5	4	13.8	16.6	-2.78	15.2	14.0	1.27
Charles Hayes	63	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-4	2	14.4	14.5	-0.09	16.0	13.0	2.95
Patrick Patterson	22	22	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	0	-6	17.3	13.6	3.72	15.1	14.9	0.19
Kyle Lowry	88	90	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.30	-9	3	-12	14.3	15.7	-1.35	15.3	11.0	4.33
Courtney Lee	42	40	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.14	-15	9	-24	15.7	13.5	2.20	12.9	16.3	-3.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	78	75	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.24	18	-12	30	14.8	15.5	-0.74	14.5	14.3	0.22
Joel Anthony	30	29	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-9	24	14.5	15.1	-0.68	15.9	13.8	2.12
James Jones	47	45	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	0	6	15.5	14.4	1.05	14.5	14.4	0.09
LeBron James	83	82	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	15.0	14.6	0.45	14.3	15.5	-1.21
Chris Bosh	78	76	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.30	-1	7	-8	15.8	11.7	4.09	14.3	15.1	-0.83
Mike Bibby	71	69	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.15	-4	10	-14	15.6	13.4	2.21	14.0	15.5	-1.49
Erick Dampier	24	23	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	7	-8	15.8	14.7	1.12	14.1	14.5	-0.41
Eddie House	13	13	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	6	-6	12.2	15.3	-3.12	15.2	14.3	0.82
Mike Miller	48	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	9	-12	14.7	15.2	-0.45	14.5	14.4	0.14
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	15	16	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	8	-10	11.1	15.6	-4.49	14.2	14.5	-0.23
Juwan Howard	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	9	-12	10.6	15.3	-4.69	15.4	14.4	1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.73,0.64,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.4,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 89, NYK 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.7%
SAC 83, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.34,0.53,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.99,1,1	92.7%
MIL 87, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.79,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.6%