NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	7.5 [330]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +52.1%
Chicago Bulls	93		Comeback	4.3 [203]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -31.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.29	0.12	0.20	0.02	21	60%	0.36	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.06
Mario Chalmers	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	6	86%	0.19	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	25	55%	0.16	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.03
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	2	100%	0.04	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.31	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31,-0.31	-0.22	-0.12	-0.03	18	17%	-0.29	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.52	0.52	0.06	0.43	-0.04	12	69%	0.63	4	-0.11	5	100%	0.04
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.01	7	44%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	28%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.04	0.02	12	62%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	6	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.08,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.18,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	24	46%	0.02	4	-0.12	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.0	31.3	18.7	30.0	2.8	43.2	157.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +50.5%

MIA -25.2%

CHI +18.3%

CHI +1.2%

CHI +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	14.9	15.5	15.5	94.7	97.9	105.7
season	16.0	15.7		109.0	106.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		99.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.4	16.3	16.7	13.5	14.9
CHI	16.0	15.0	15.2	15.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	26	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	2	-8	16.0	14.6	1.40	14.0	16.1	-2.07
Erick Dampier	55	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-5	6	14.3	15.9	-1.58	16.8	13.7	3.11
Joel Anthony	36	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	2	-8	16.3	14.1	2.25	14.5	16.1	-1.64
LeBron James	80	82	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.36	3	-7	10	14.4	18.1	-3.76	16.0	12.5	3.46
Chris Bosh	82	83	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-6	8	15.0	14.8	0.13	15.8	13.8	1.94
Mario Chalmers	77	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-4	4	14.7	16.0	-1.29	15.7	14.3	1.42
Eddie House	30	31	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	6	-16	16.0	14.5	1.55	13.3	16.6	-3.37
Dwyane Wade	84	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.8	16.0	-1.18	15.5	16.0	-0.53

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	40	40	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.15	17	-13	30	14.2	16.5	-2.29	16.3	14.0	2.31
Luol Deng	80	80	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.30	12	-8	20	15.4	16.3	-0.88	15.3	13.1	2.12
Ronnie Brewer	45	41	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	-2	8	14.1	16.8	-2.69	15.3	14.6	0.70
CJ Watson	24	23	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	-1	6	13.4	16.2	-2.82	16.1	14.6	1.57
Taj Gibson	32	31	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.10	6	-2	8	14.1	16.2	-2.11	15.8	14.5	1.28
Derrick Rose	74	72	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.33	-2	6	-8	15.9	14.2	1.65	14.4	16.6	-2.15
Carlos Boozer	61	62	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	7	-10	16.7	13.4	3.29	14.7	15.5	-0.84
Keith Bogans	33	34	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	6	-8	16.0	15.3	0.77	15.1	14.8	0.31
Kyle Korver	32	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.16	-8	12	-20	17.3	14.6	2.74	13.5	15.7	-2.25
Joakim Noah	54	54	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.20	-11	15	-26	16.4	14.3	2.13	14.0	16.3	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.41,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.71,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.77,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 85, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.59,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.85,0.85,1	90.9%
UTA 86, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.52,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.74,0.65,0.54,0.47,0.64,0.68,0.96,1	89.4%
BOS 88, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.7,0.59,0.4,0.62,0.45,0.78,0.74,1	89.3%