NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	94		Excitement	8.0 [243]		MVP	Reggie Williams (GSW): +25.4%
Golden State Warriors	100		Comeback	2.2 [735]		LVP	Carlos Delfino (MIL): -17.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.23	0.11	0.12	0.00	14	60%	0.23	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.05
Keyon Dooling	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	12	56%	0.10	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.03
Larry Sanders	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.06	0.02	20	55%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.03	-0.15	-0.01	22	45%	-0.07	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.13	0.00	6	93%	0.25	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.11,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.01,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.08	0.02	22	51%	0.16	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	11	67%	0.18	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.05	0.00	11	67%	0.23	7	-0.23	2	100%	0.02
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	12	54%	0.02	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.6	22.7	15.4	24.9	2.7	36.5	127.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +80.0%

MIL -9.8%

MIL -27.3%

GSW +3.1%

GSW +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	14.8	15.5	101.1	108.7	105.7
season	16.2	14.8		100.1	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.4		109.0	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.6	17.9	15.0	18.2	16.3
GSW	15.4	14.0	13.8	16.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	39	40	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.10	2	-8	10	14.9	17.4	-2.40	14.8	14.8	-0.01
Garrett Temple	14	13	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-8	10	18.1	16.0	2.12	15.2	14.7	0.52
John Salmons	39	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.06	-6	0	-6	17.2	15.7	1.44	15.6	14.2	1.40
Larry Sanders	27	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	2	-10	17.0	16.1	0.98	14.4	15.0	-0.61
Corey Maggette	59	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-2	-2	15.7	17.4	-1.68	14.4	15.5	-1.10
Luc Mbah a Moute	77	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-5	4	16.9	13.7	3.13	15.1	13.4	1.63
Ersan Ilyasova	68	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-1	-4	15.1	19.8	-4.67	14.6	15.4	-0.85
Carlos Delfino	88	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-4	2	16.4	15.6	0.79	14.7	16.2	-1.48
Keyon Dooling	54	52	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.42	-8	2	-10	17.4	14.9	2.40	14.8	14.8	0.01

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	44	44	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-3	12	15.4	14.2	1.16	18.1	14.8	3.27
Dorell Wright	79	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-2	10	14.7	15.2	-0.52	16.0	18.1	-2.12
Stephen Curry	66	67	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.31	4	2	2	14.7	15.1	-0.41	15.3	19.1	-3.85
Monta Ellis	85	87	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	0	6	14.4	18.9	-4.41	16.0	21.8	-5.87
Reggie Williams	38	39	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	0	6	15.2	14.5	0.64	17.9	15.2	2.68
David Lee	68	70	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	4	-2	14.8	14.7	0.10	15.1	20.0	-4.86
Ekpe Udoh	17	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	7	-8	14.6	14.8	-0.17	18.4	15.9	2.45
Andris Biedrins	54	53	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	8	-10	14.5	15.1	-0.59	16.5	16.1	0.47
Charlie Bell	9	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	8	-10	16.4	14.6	1.84	19.8	15.9	3.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.87,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 82, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.47,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.79,0.94,0.92,1	92.7%
DEN 81, UTA 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	92.5%
NYK 101, CHA 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.41,0.54,0.4,0.55,0.72,0.77,0.96,1	92.4%